It doesn’t take a handicapping genius to predict that Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry and Dallas Mavericks counterpart Luka Doncic will have standout performances. That’s what they do.
But just because that seems obvious doesn’t mean that Curry and Doncic won’t find the window for NBA prop bettors Thursday night.
Props.com looks at four player-specific Mavericks vs Warriors props for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals.
Odds via FanDuel as of 11:20 a.m. ET on May 26.
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Mavericks vs Warriors Player Props
Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry
The prop: 27.5 points
The odds: Over -104/Under -116
Curry scored only 20 points in Game 4, but he sat for most of the fourth quarter with Dallas cruising and the game seemingly out of reach. The former two-time NBA MVP scored 32 points (in 37 minutes) and 31 points (in 39 minutes) in Games 2 and 3, respectively. Regardless of how Thursday’s game plays out, it’s unlikely Curry will spent much time on the bench, as he and his teammates certainly don’t want this series to go back to Dallas.
Curry is 6-2 to the Over on his points prop at home in the playoffs, and we’re betting on that trend continuing in Game 5.
Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic
The prop: 34.5 points
The odds: Over -108/Under -112
Doncic has scored at least 30 points in each of his five career games when facing playoff elimination. The lone exception was Tuesday, when he merely poured in 30 as the Mavericks nursed a large lead for most of Game 4.
In short, Doncic shows up and delivers in big games, win or lose. Knowing he needs to put up big numbers to once again extend Dallas’ season, expect Luka to fire all the way to the end and go Over 34.5 points.
Golden State Warriors: PF Draymond Green
The prop: 7.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -102/Under -120
The Warriors lost the rebounding battle to Dallas for the first time all series in Game 4. And Green hasn’t gone Over 7.5 rebounds in the past three games. But in a close-out game in front of the home fans, Golden State’s serial irritant should spearhead a concerted effort on the boards in Game 5.
Green had double-digit rebounds three times in the conference semifinal series against Memphis, and Thursday is the perfect time to do so again. Take Green Over 7.5 rebounds.
Dallas Mavericks: PF Dorian Finney-Smith
The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over -108/Under -114
Finney-Smith broke out of his series-long slump with 23 points in Game 4 by hitting four 3-pointers. It was a fantastic (and much-needed) performance, but it was an outlier. Consider: Finney-Smith scored five, 10 and nine points in the other three games in this series. He also scored eight or fewer in the final three games of the conference semifinal series against Phoenix.
Perhaps Finney-Smith really has found his shooting stroke and will knock down some more 3s in Game 5 to foil this bet. But the smart play is Under 11.5 points, even if we have to pay a little extra juice.
Most Popular Props
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET THURSDAY: DraftKings said these were the most heavily bet props for Game 5, with both sides of two bets making up the top four:
- Stephen Curry Over 27.5 points (-120)
- Luka Doncic Over 34.5 points (-115)
- Curry Under 27.5 points (+100)
- Doncic Under 34.5 points (-105)
- Kevon Looney Over 2.5 blocks (+115)