Looking for Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions for Game 6? We have you covered as the Thunder travel to take on the Mavericks on Saturday, May 18 at 8:00 ET. Currently, the total sits at 209.5 with the Mavericks favored by 3.5 at home. Keep reading to get our Mavericks vs. Thunder player props and predictions for Game 6.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds
- Spread: Mavericks -3.5
- Total 209.5
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Game Info
- Date: Saturday, May 18
- Time: 8:00 ET
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas TX
- TV: ABC
Thunder Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Across their last five road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 105 points per game.
- As the betting underdog, the Thunder have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Oklahoma City posted a straight up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
Mavericks Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- The Mavericks are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
- Through their last three games as the favorite, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.
The Mavericks picked up a 104-92 win over the Thunder in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Thunder were favored by 4.5 points at home, but the Mavericks easily covered the spread with a 12-point win. The over/under line for the game was 213 points, and the teams fell 17 points short of that mark.
Luka Doncic put up a triple-double in the win for the Mavericks, finishing with 31 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder, scoring 30 points and knocking down 50% of his threes. As a team, the Thunder shot just 25% from three-point range, while the Mavericks hit 40% of their threes.
Will the Thunder Find a Way to Win in Dallas?
Today, the Thunder are 3.5-point underdogs against the Mavericks. This season, Oklahoma City has gone 11-12 as the underdog, with an average scoring differential of -1.2 points per game.
Oklahoma City is currently 52-39 against the spread this season, including a road ATS record of 23-22. As the underdog, they are 13-10 ATS on the road.
In terms of their O/U record, the Thunder are 46-44-1 for the season. The under has hit in their last three games, and their games have averaged 229.7 points per game.
In their most recent game against the Mavericks, the Thunder lost by a score of 104-92. The O/U line for that game was 213 points, and Oklahoma City was favored by 4.5 points.
Despite the loss, the Thunder are still in first place in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. Against the West, they are 36-16 and 21-9 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Thunder have a straight-up record of 27-18, which is 13th in the NBA. Their average scoring differential on the road is +2.4 points per game.
Oklahoma City’s offense is averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. But they have struggled to maintain that level of production recently, as they have scored below their season average in each of their last seven games. The Thunder’s scoring average on the road this season is 115.6 points per contest, which is the 6th best mark in the league.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying the Thunder’s offense of late, averaging 31.4 points per game in his last five games. In these games, he shot 49.6% from the field. Jalen Williams has also been playing well for the Thunder, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in his last five games. Luguentz Dort is averaging 10.9 points per game on the season while hitting 39.4% of his threes.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 9th in points allowed per game at 111.2. They have been especially good at defending the paint, allowing opponents to shoot just 51.8% from two-point range, which is 2nd best in the league.
One area where the Thunder have struggled defensively is defending the three-point line. On the season, they are 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.1%. Over their last five games, they have given up 38.1% shooting from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma City has been able to generate steals and blocked shots at a high rate this season, ranking 1st in both categories. They have also done a good job of not fouling, coming in 15th in personal fouls per game.
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Will Dallas Win at Home?
Today’s O/U line of 209.5 is lower than the Mavericks’ season average of 232.4. The team has hit the under in three straight games and has an over/under record of 41-52 this season.
The Mavericks’ last game was also against the Thunder, and they won by a score of 104-92. In that game, the O/U line was 213 points, and the Mavericks covered the spread as 4.5-point underdogs.
Dallas has an ATS record of 55-38 this season, and they have covered the spread in their last two road games. At home, their ATS record is 24-22, and they are favored by 3.5 points today.
As the favorite, the Mavericks have a record of 42-16 and have gone 37-21 against the spread. This season, their average scoring margin as the favorite is +6.8 PPG.
In Western Conference play, the Mavericks are 31-21 compared to 19-11 against non-conference opponents. This record has them in 5th place in the West and 1st in the Southwest Division.
Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 8th ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. At home, they are 10th in the league, averaging 117.2 points per contest. The Mavericks average 39.5 three-point attempts per game, which is the 3rd highest mark in the league. However, they are just 14th in three-point shooting percentage, at 36%.
Luka Doncic is probable for the Mavericks and is averaging 33.9 points per game this season. Over his last five games, he is averaging 23.8 points, 8.4 assists, and 10.6 rebounds. In these games, he hit 2.8 threes per game. P.J. Washington has averaged 19.4 points and 9 rebounds in his last five games while hitting 4.2 threes per game.
So far this season, the Dallas Mavericks have been a middle of the pack defense, allowing 114.0 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. At home, they have been slightly better, giving up 113.6 points per game.
Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, allowing just 104 points per game, which is 7th in the league in that span. During this stretch, opponents have made just 32.6% of their three-point attempts.
On the season, opponents have made 36.5% of their three-point attempts vs. the Mavericks, which is 16th in the NBA. In terms of steals, Dallas is 25th in the league at 6.9 per contest.
Mavericks vs. Thunder Player Props
When looking at a player prop for this game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a points prop of 31.5 with both the over and under paying out at -117.
Based on our projections, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to go 12/22 from the field, resulting in 34 points. We recommend taking the over on his prop bet, which offers a payout of -117.
- The Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-117)
Mavericks vs. Thunder Predictions
As the underdogs with a spread of +3.5, we recommend going with the Thunder on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.
Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 209.5, and our model predicts the Thunder and Mavericks to score a combined 229 points. We recommend betting on the over.
The Pick: Thunder +3.5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook
