Mariners vs Rangers Odds, Prediction, Best Bet

Ty France #23 of the Seattle Mariners looks on before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at T-Mobile Park on May 07, 2022 in Seattle, Washington.
Image Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers meet in an American League West contest that will be televised on MLB Network tonight. The Mariners are in the thick of the playoff race, and the Rangers…well, let’s just say they aren’t.

Of course, even mismatches can provide a surprise. So, what’s the betting outlook for the game? Mariners vs Rangers odds and analysis are below; spoiler alert, a team total is our best bet for this contest.

Mariners vs Rangers Odds

Rangers (Dunning)
+1.5 (-160)+135O 8.5 (-120)
@ Mariners (Kirby)-1.5 (+135)-160U 8.5 (+105)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 am ET on July 26.

Dunning Is Back From The IL

Dunning vs Mariners: Dunning was roughed up for four runs on six hits, four walks, and two strikeouts in only 2.1 innings in his last start for the Rangers on July 10. Then, he hit the Injured List (IL) with an ankle impingement. The righty made a start in the Complex League on July 21. Otherwise, Dunning has rested and could be rusty in his return.

Additionally, he’s been mediocre or worse this year without rust. According to FanGraphs, in 18 starts totaling 95.2 innings, he’s had a 4.42 ERA. Dunning has also been dreadful on the road, surrendering a 5.52 ERA in 45.2 innings.

Mariners offense: The Mariners aren’t flawless. Still, they’ve been a top-10 offense against righties this year. Seattle is ninth in wRC+ (106) against right-handed pitchers.

They’ve also been even better at the dish lately. Over the last 30 days, they’ve had a 110 wRC+. Thus, they won’t make life easy for Dunning in his return from the IL.

Kirby Is Shining In His Rookie Campaign

Kirby vs Rangers: Sadly, Kirby has had a 5.87 ERA in his last three starts. Although, a seven-run dud against the Baltimore Orioles on June 27 is primarily to blame. Otherwise, the rookie righty has been essentially good.

He’s also pitched at least five innings in nine of 12 turns, allowing three earned runs or less in nine starts. Overall, in 12 starts spanning 64.1 innings, Kirby has had a 3.78 ERA and 3.45 xFIP. So, the rookie is off to a stellar start to his rookie campaign.

Rangers offense: The splits are a mixed bag for the Rangers’ offense. On the plus side, they have been eighth in wRC+ (112) over the last 30 days. However, the other splits are less flattering.

The Rangers are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (93) against righties. They’ve also been no great shakes on the road. Texas is 19th in wOBA (.308) in road games and precisely average, with a 100 wRC+.

Mariners vs Rangers Prediction

The Mariners have handled their business against bad teams, and the Rangers have struggled against good clubs. According to Baseball-Reference, the Mariners are 28-14 against teams with a sub-.500 record. Conversely, the Rangers are 22-31 against teams above .500.

The Mariners should nab the win at home. However, I’d rather hop on their Over against a pitcher who’s been erratic and making his return from the IL. The best combination of team total offered and betting odds is Seattle over 4.0 runs at -125 at Caesars Sportsbook. So instead of laying more juice on the Mariners on the moneyline, take them over for 4.0 runs.

The Pick: Mariners Team Total Runs Over 4.0 | -125 at Caesars Sportsbook

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