When it comes to college football, it doesn’t get much better than a big-time SEC matchup. It may only be Week 2, but we already have a massive conference showdown on the docket between Kentucky and Florida. Both teams have aspirations of challenging Georgia in the SEC East, and a win in this matchup would be an excellent first step.
Kentucky entered the year following an excellent campaign in 2021-22, while Florida limped to a losing record. However, Florida may have the next big college superstar on their hands in Anthony Richardson. They were able to upset No. 7 Utah at home in Week 1, which vaulted them all the way to No. 12 in the AP Poll.
Can Florida secure another home win against a ranked opponent, or can Kentucky continue what they started last season? Let’s dive into the Kentucky vs. Florida predictions.
Kentucky vs. Florida Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +5.5 | +175 | O 52.5 (-110) |
| @ Florida | -5.5 | -205 | U 52.5 (-110) |
Odds via Betway Sportsbook as of 11 a.m. ET on Sept. 7
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)
- TV: ESPN
Kentucky vs. Florida Trends
- Kentucky is coming off a 37-13 win against Miami (OH) in Week 1, covering the spread 16 points.
- Kentucky was 10-3 last season (8-3-1 against the spread).
- Florida is coming off a 29-26 win against No. 7 Utah, securing a cover as home underdogs.
- Florida was 6-7 last season (3-10 against the spread).
- Kentucky beat Florida 20-13 last season at home.
- Home favorites are 235-186-6 against the spread in matchups between ranked opponents since 2005.
- Kentucky is 14-11-1 against the spread in SEC games since the start of 2019.
- Teams that won six games or fewer the previous season are 115-96-4 against the spread when favored against a ranked opponent.
- As of Wednesday, DraftKings reports that 77% of the spread bets and 76% of the handle are on Florida.
- For the total, 80% of the handle and 85% of the bets are on the over.
Kentucky: Football Powerhouse?
Kentucky is known as a basketball school, but they have quietly transformed into a strong football program. They won 10 games last year, 10 games in 2018, and four straight bowl games.
The team lost plenty of talent to the NFL Draft and the transfer portal this offseason, but the team remains strong. They’re ranked 27th in 247 Sports’ Composite Talent Index, and it starts with quarterback Will Levis. The Penn State transfer racked up 2,826 passing yards and 24 touchdowns last season, and he added 376 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. There are also plenty of options in the backfield, although the injury to Chris Rodriguez hurts. He led the team with nearly 1,400 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns last season.
Napier on Will Levis: "There's no secret here that Kentucky's got one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He's got a first round grade. He's a phenomenal passer."
— Nick de la Torre (@delatorre) September 7, 2022
Kentucky also just had one of their best recruiting classes ever. They finished 14th per 247 Sports, which put them three spots ahead of Florida. Kentucky ranking ahead of Florida in the recruiting ranks would’ve seemed ridiculous just a few years ago.
Mark Stoops has been getting the best out of his players for years, and he has arguably more talent to work with than ever before. Securing a win in Florida will be one of their toughest tasks of the season – at least until a matchup with Georgia – and they haven’t beaten Florida in back-to-back seasons since the ’70s. If any Kentucky team can do it, this might be it.
Anthony Richardson: The Next Great College QB?
It’s safe to say that Richardson was the breakout star of Week 1. He was electric on the ground, racking up 106 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries. One of those scores came from 45 yards out:
45 YARDS TO THE HOUSE FOR ANTHONY RICHARDSON 🤯💨 pic.twitter.com/HIhYQSXZ4z
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 4, 2022
That performance put him squarely on the Heisman radar, but he still needs to show improvement in the passing game. He averaged just 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt with six touchdowns and five interceptions in limited playing time last year, and he managed just 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt in Week 1.
The Gators are going to need a monster season from Richardson due to their defense. They finished 10th in the SEC in scoring defense last year, and they surrendered 446 yards to Utah in Week 1. Their biggest issues came on the ground, and Utah averaged an outstanding 5.9 yards per rush in their first contest. Kentucky’s ground game was mediocre in their opening performance, but they should find success in this spot.
That said, the defense did secure a game-sealing interception with their backs against the wall against Utah. If they can make enough timely plays, Richardson’s playmaking should keep them in a lot of contests.
Kentucky vs. Florida Predictions
Overall, I’m a bit conflicted in this spot. The Gators are clearly the more talented squad on paper, and they have the best player in the game in Richardson. Still, I think Kentucky might be the better team overall. If Rodriguez was playing, I’d be very tempted to grab the points with the underdogs.
However, I think the best play is the Over. Florida has the potential to play in a lot of shootouts this season thanks to their ability on offense and deficiencies on defense. They combined for 55 points with Utah in a game that was extremely fast-paced due to the run-heavy game script.
Kentucky is a bit more pass-heavy, so that should stop the clock a bit more often. If Richardson is the real deal – and all indications suggest that he is – Florida games should routinely hit the 50s this season. I’ll take a flyer on the over 52.5.
Pick: Over 52.5 | -110 on Betway Sportsbook