A day ahead of the Run for the Roses, action is starting to pick up on Kentucky Derby odds. For literally ages, bettors only had pari-mutuel betting available. But now, multiple sportsbooks are offering standard fixed-odds wagering — the same way you might bet on the winner of a golf tournament.
And bettors are responding. Epicenter and Zandon are jockeying for the top spot in odds to win the Kentucky Derby. But plenty of other horses are getting attention in the field of 19.
Props.com garnered insights from Circa Sports and Caesars Sportsbook on 2022 Kentucky Derby odds and action.
Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
| Epicenter | +490 |
| Taiba | +575 |
| Messier | +655 |
| Zandon | +665 |
| Mo Donegal | +1070 |
| Smile Happy | +1425 |
| White Abbario | +1500 |
| Charge It | +1550 |
| Cyberknife | +2000 |
| Crown Pride | +2500 |
| Tiz The Bomb | +3000 |
| Zozos | +3200 |
| Simplification | +3500 |
| Barber Road | +4100 |
| Happy Jack | +5300 |
| Pioneer Of Medina | +5500 |
| Classic Causeway | +5500 |
| Summer Is Tomorrow | +8100 |
| Tawny Port | +8100 |
| Rich Strike | +14,500 |
Odds via Circa Sports as of 1:30 p.m. ET May 7.
Race Day Kentucky Derby Betting Odds and Action
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET: With about 5.5 hours until post time, Kentucky Derby odds are bouncing around a bit in the fixed-price market and in traditional pari-mutuel wagering. In the latter, Epicenter is sitting at 5/1, but he’s now joined at that price by Taiba. And Messier is now the 6/1 third choice, while Zandon has slipped back to 7/1 in the pari-mutuel odds.
However, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale is promising a wager of $3 million to $4 million on the favorite, though he said that bet won’t be made until 10 minutes before post time. Ed De Rosa, vice president of content and product development at Horse Racing Nation, said he’s pretty certain McIngvale’s money will end up on Epicenter.
“It looks like Epicenter will for sure be the favorite. It’ll be close for second choice between Taiba and Zandon,” De Rosa said. “Mattress Mack’s bet will make Epicenter comfortably the favorite. So if you like Epicenter, prepare for a shorter price. If you don’t, that helps your odds on the other horses.”
De Rosa said among the dark horses today, Crown Pride is a popular play, currently at 19/1 in pari-mutuel odds. Crown Pride is 25/1 in Circa Sports’ fixed odds.
Epicenter remains the favorite at Circa, priced at +490, but things have shaken up a bit behind him since Friday. Taiba is the +575 second choice, followed by Messier at +655 and Zandon at +665.
Top of the Order
Depending on where you shop for fixed prices, odds will vary throughout the field. That said, the top two horses on the board are certainly Epicenter and Zandon. At Circa Sports, Epicenter is the +470 chalk on Friday afternoon, followed closely by Zandon at +550. At Caesars, the odds for both horses are shorter, and the favorite is flipped, with Zandon +300 and Epicenter +350.
Circa opened Kentucky Derby futures odds way back on Dec. 1, with 2-year-old champion Corniche favored and Jack Christopher the second choice. But neither of those horses are in Saturday’s field. Corniche didn’t round into form as well as expected, so his handlers opted against running the Derby. Jack Christopher had minor injury issues, is back in running form, and will actually race Saturday — but in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard.
So what’s the status of action on the current near co-favorites?
“Epicenter has taken a bit more money than Zandon to this point, and that action has mostly come this morning,” Circa risk supervisor Paul Zilm said Friday afternoon. “Neither would produce a big win or loss if the race happened right now. However, there’s a long way to go.”
Indeed, much like any other major American sporting event, the bulk of betting comes in on the final day, the final hour, even the final minutes before post time, which is 6:57 p.m. ET Saturday.
Added a Caesars Sports representative: “Our futures wagering has lifted Zandon up as a horse the public is backing, and we have tickets on that horse at longer odds from months prior.”
Next in Line
After Epicenter and Zandon, only two other thoroughbreds are shorter than 10/1 in the Kentucky Derby odds market. Messier is the +645 third choice at Circa and the +700 third choice at Caesars; Taiba is +830 at Circa and +800 at Caesars.
“Messier is presenting some value for bettors currently. Taiba is trickier, as a horse that has only run twice ahead of this huge race,” a Caesars Sports representative said.
Circa’s Zilm echoed that sentiment, but noted Taiba is starting to get more popular heading into the weekend.
“So far, we have taken more money on Messier. But in the last couple days, Taiba’s ticket count has started to grow rapidly,” Zilm said. “Since both were formerly trained by Bob Baffert, they will almost certainly go off in single digits. We have them in a head-to-head matchup with each other. However, there’s no significant [matchups] action as of yet. We just opened matchups [Friday] morning.”
Kentucky Derby Dark Horses
As is the case when betting Kentucky Derby odds — or really any of the Triple Crown races — casual horse bettors are always looking to turn a little into a lot. Zilm pointed to a couple of down-the-board thoroughbreds bettors seem to like — including one he thinks could be in the mix.
“Bettors have been keen on Crown Pride at 26/1 and Charge It at 16/1,” Zilm said. “I think Simplification at 30/1 has an outside shot of being heard from at the end.”
Despite being the co-10th choice, Crown Pride is actually taking the third-most money so far at Circa, behind Epicenter and Messier. The top three in tickets are all chalky: Epicenter, followed by Taiba, then Zandon.
But with the overwhelming majority of tickets and money still to come Saturday, Circa can’t yet pinpoint need or liability in the Run for the Roses.
“With so much time between now and the race, I really can’t say,” Zilm said. “We have upped our limits and will take to win $50,000 at this point. So the complexion seems to change hourly at times.”
