If you’re looking for Heat vs. Nuggets predictions, you’ve come to the right place. The Nuggets are on the move to take on the Heat on Wednesday, Mar 13 at 7:30 ET. At present, the total is set at 215, and the Nuggets are favored by 4 on the road. Keep reading to get our Heat vs. Nuggets player props and predictions.
Heat vs. Nuggets Odds
- Spread: Nuggets -4
- Total 215
Odds via FanDuel SportsBook. New To FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Wednesday, Mar 13
- Time: 7:30 ET
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami FL
- TV: ESPN
Nuggets Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 4-0-1 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- In their last five road games, Denver has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 115 . The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
- Although the Nuggets have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.
Heat Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- When looking at their past ten home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 7-2-1 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
- Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 4-1 while going 2-3 straight up.
Can The Nuggets Secure a Road Victory?
The Nuggets are 41-14 this season as the favorite and are favored by 4 points today. In their last three games, they have been favored by an average of 5.8 points per game and are 24-29 ATS as the favorite on the road.
This season, Denver has been the favorite in 55 of their 65 games. They have a record of 29-34 against the spread and have gone 13-18 ATS on the road.
In their last three games, the Nuggets have won straight-up and are 2-1 ATS on the road. Their most recent win came against the Raptors, where they won 125-119. Denver was favored by 17 points in that game.
Their O/U record for the season is 25-38-2, and the over has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 215 points, and Denver’s games have averaged 225.7 points per game this season.
Denver is currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 45-20. Against the West, they are 25-14 and 20-6 against non-conference opponents.
Heading into their matchup against the Heat, the Nuggets are averaging 115 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. However, on the road, they are averaging 111 points per game.
When it comes to pace, Denver is 28th in the league at 96.3 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 4th in the NBA at 49%.
So far this season, the Nuggets have been one of the more efficient teams from two-point range, hitting 56% of their attempts, which is 8th in the league. However, they are just 27th in three-point shooting at 36%.
This season, the Nuggets’ defense is the 7th ranked defense in the NBA at 7th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 69.2% of their games. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Nuggets are forcing 11.8 per game, which is 5th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 11th in blocked shots at 5.6 per game.
Can the Heat Offense Score Enough at Home?
Miami has lost three straight games and is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 35-29. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place.
This season, Miami has an average scoring differential of +0.5 points per game at home. Against the spread at home, they are 12-19 and 30-31 overall.
As the underdog, Miami is 10-18 straight-up and 15-13 against the spread. Today, they are getting 4 points and have gone 15-13 ATS as the underdog.
The Heat’s O/U record for the season is 24-40, and the under has hit in each of their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 220.4 points.
In their last game, the Heat lost to the Wizards by a score of 110-108. Miami was favored by 11.5 points going into the game, and they did not cover the spread. The O/U line for the game was 228.5.
When it comes to scoring, the Heat have been below the NBA scoring average in 60.9% of their games this season. Overall, they are 27th in the league in scoring at 110.5 points per game. At home, they are averaging 113.5 points per game.
One area where Miami has been strong is getting to the free-throw line. They are 7th in the NBA in free throws made per game at 18.5. In terms of pace, the Heat are 29th in the league.
From beyond the arc, Miami is 6th in three-point shooting at 37%. However, they are just 21st in three-point attempts per game. In terms of two-point shooting, the Heat are 27th in the league at 52%.
Miami’s defense has been playing well, ranking 6th in the NBA with 109.9 points allowed per game. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Heat are forcing 12.1 per game, which is 8th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 30th in blocked shots at 3.4 per game.
Heat vs. Nuggets Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Nikola Jokic and his points prop of 25.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -105 while the under is at -125. With his prop line at 25.5, our model indicates that taking the over is the way to go as we project him to end up with 26. We foresee him having a field goal percentage of 55.6% and connecting on one three.
- The Prop: Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points (-105)
Heat vs. Nuggets Predictions
The Heat come in as the underdog at +4, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.
Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 215 and given that our model is projecting 224 points between the teams, we like the over.
The Pick: Heat +4 | at Fanduel Sportsbook