Friday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props

As the late Yogi Berra would say, “It’s deja vu all over again.” You guessed it, Thursday’s Best Bets went 2-for-3 yet again.

That marks the sixth time in the past seven tries that our Best Bets produced a 2-1 record. For those keeping score at home, that’s a respectable 13-8 record/62% hit rate over the last week and change.

So what’s in store for Friday’s trio of Best Bets? You can probably make an educated guess based on recent history.

Let’s get to it!

All odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on May 27.

Best Bets Track Record

Thursday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 97-93-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 29-30-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 27-36
NBA Props: 33-20
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Total: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

The bet: Celtics-Heat Over 201.5
The odds: -112
Where to bet: BetRivers Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) is coming off consecutive Best Bet winners, both from the NBA conference finals. So it’s no surprise that Friday’s selection comes for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Perrault noted that he likes Boston to win this matchup with relative ease, but he acknowledged that laying 8.5 points on the Celtics was too risky.

Instead, Perrault is attacking the total in this game, siding with Boston-Miami Over 201.5 combined points.

The last two games of this series were ugly — like 1994 ugly. After producing just 184 total points in Game 4, the Celtics and Heat managed just 173 in Game 5. Injuries on both sides have contributed to the offensive struggles, but Perrault believes each squad will pick up the pace in this potential elimination game. He’s also confident that Miami shooting guard Tyler Herro (groin) will return after sitting out the last two contests (Herro is officially a game-time decision).

Throw in a depressed total because of all the bricks the teams tossed up in Games 4 and 5 — the total was as high as 208 for Game 4 — and Perrault sees plenty of value on Over 201.5. You can find that number at BetRivers, at -112 juice.

NBA Prop: Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat)

The prop: Over 9.5 rebounds
The odds: +105
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Friday

The Heat are searching for answers at the moment, and unfortunately, they’re running out of options. They omitted Dewayne Dedmon from the rotation in Game 5, which left Adebayo to handle all of the center minutes. He was productive from a statistical standpoint, finishing with 18 points and 10 boards, but the Heat were outscored by 23 points with Adebayo on the floor. That was the squad’s worst plus/minus mark.

Still, the Heat really don’t have any alternatives to Adebayo at this point. He should see another massive workload in Game 6, making the Over on his rebounding prop very appealing. Adebayo averaged 10.1 rebounds per game during the regular season, and he’s grabbed 10 boards in back-to-back games.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat)

The bet: Over 22.5 points
The odds: -106
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

Thursday’s BetPrep Prop of the Day was a winner, as Andrew Wiggins went Over 16.5 points for in the Golden State Warriors’ Game 5 clincher over Dallas.

For Friday, BetPrep is looking for another player to go Over his points prop. The official pick for Props.com’s Best Bets: Heat forward Jimmy Butler Over 22.5 points in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Butler hurt his knee in Game 3 of this series. In two games since then, he has scored 13 and 6 points, respectively. It goes without saying that the Heat will need Butler to step up and play like the All-Star he is if they want to keep their season alive. Expect Butler to leave it all out on the court in Game 6, displaying more aggressiveness than his last two performances.

In 12 games prior to the knee injury, Butler averaged 37 minutes, 20 field-goal attempts, nine free-throw attempts, and 30 points per game. BetPrep believes he’ll be closer to that mark than the disappointing numbers he put up in Games 4 and 5.

In other words, this is an intriguing buy-low spot on Butler. You can find Butler Over 22.5 points (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook.