Friday Best Bets: One MLB Side, Two MLB Props

Thursday’s trio of Best Bets looked good … until they didn’t. For instance, we needed Boston forward Grant Williams to snag at least four rebounds. He grabbed two in the first three minutes, but only found one board the rest of the game. Cue the meme: Hide the pain, Harold!

Friday’s Best Bets bring fresh optimism. Legitimate optimism. Why? Because we have three MLB picks on tap. The went with an MLB Best Bets triple play last time, the brooms came out for a 3-0 sweep.

Can we turn three again? Of course, we can … but time will tell if we actually pull it off. With that, here are your Friday Best Bets!

All odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on June 3.

Best Bets Track Record

Thursday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 104-97-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 31-32-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 29-37
NBA Props: 34-21
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 3-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

MLB Side: Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics

The bet: Red Sox -1.5
The odds: +112
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) is all about hometown pride on Friday. He’s rolling with his beloved Red Sox to cover the run line (win by at least two runs) at Oakland.

Here’s the rationale:

• Oakland SP James Kaprielian has gotten shelled in his last two starts (9.1 IP, 13 H, 9 ER, 3 HR, 5 K).
• Behind Kaprielian stands an Oakland bullpen that has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.23) among all MLB relief corps this season.
• Boston SP Nathan Eovaldi is back in good form, having delivered consecutive quality starts after getting torched for six home runs by the Astros on May 17.
• The Red Sox bats have come to life, holding the second-best wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Perrault also noted that this will be something of a home-away-from-home game for the Red Sox. Boston fans are in the Bay Area for the NBA Finals, and there’s a good chance they’ll show up to support their team on the diamond Friday. (Then again, it’s not difficult for any fanbase to take over Oakland’s stadium.)

FanDuel has the Red Sox -1.5 at plus-money (+112).

MLB Prop: J.D. Martinez (Boston Red Sox)

The prop: Over 1.5 total bases
The odds: +115
Where to bet: Draftkings Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach

It’s a pure coincidence that Perrault’s pick aligns with this MLB prop. Frankly, I’m surprised we are getting plus-money on Martinez collecting at least two total bases Friday night. Here’s why:

• Martinez has gone Over 1.5 total bases in 26 of 42 games this season.
• He’s even better on the road, going Over 1.5 total bases in 14 of 18 contests.
• BetPrep’s projection system gives 41% expected value to the Over. Anything above 30% is a strong “buy” signal.

The matchup is juicy as well. Take everything mentioned above about A’s starting pitcher James Kaprielian and directly apply it to Martinez’s situation.

Looking to grab this bet? DraftKings has Martinez Over 1.5 total bases at +115 odds.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: SP Max Fried (Atlanta Braves)

The bet: Over 4.5 strikeouts
The odds: -123
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

BetPrep’s portion of Friday’s Best Bets also comes from the diamond, but doesn’t involve the Red Sox. If you recall, BetPrep cashed a strikeout prop Tuesday with Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito cruising Over 5.5 strikeouts at Toronto.

For Friday, the BetPrep crew will be rooting for Braves pitcher Max Fried to go Over 4.5 strikeouts at Colorado. Here’s the supporting analysis for this wager:

• Fried has recorded eight-plus strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts.
• Fried has recorded eight-plus strikeouts in all three road starts this season.
• On the year, Fried is averaging 5.7 strikeouts per outing.

Pitching in Coors Field can be difficult for an opposing hurler, but Fried’s filthy stuff travels — even in the thin Mile High air — leaving plenty of value on this prop.

You can find Fried Over 4.5 strikeouts at Caesars Sportsbook.