Friday Best Bets: Three NBA Finals Picks For Game 4

Stop the presses! Friday’s Best Bets contains a shocking development: Matt Perrault, host of The Bostonian vs. The Book Podcast, is picking against his hometown team.

Perrault hasn’t hesitated to support his beloved Boston-based teams in this article, but he’s never bet against them. That changes on Friday.

We’ll outline that pick along with a pair of NBA player props for Friday’s installment of the Best Bets series.

All odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on June 10.

Best Bets Track Record

Thursday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 110-102-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 34-34-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 31-40
NBA Props: 34-22
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 4-2
MLB Sides: 2-0

NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors (at Boston Celtics)

The bet: Warriors moneyline
The odds: +140
Where to bet: BetMGM Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

We mentioned this in the introduction, but Perrault is picking against his hometown Celtics on Friday. Here’s his rationale for this surprising pick:

• Golden State has a chip on its shoulder after losing a physical battle in Game 3.
• The Warriors have won five straight games following a loss in the playoffs.
• Golden State got a wake-up call in Game 3. Extra attention will be placed on defense and rebounding.
• Boston’s home court advantage is real, but the Warriors are a veteran team that knows what to expect.

Stephen Curry’s ankle injury is worrisome, but the oddsmakers and Warriors both believe it’s not going to bring Golden State down. Boston stepped in as a 3.5 point home favorite in Game 3. The line is the exact same for Game 4 despite the health concern for Curry.

Perrault also noted an interesting stat: In the last 65 NBA Finals games, the underdog has either won outright or the favorite has covered. If that trend holds, it means the Warriors will win outright or Boston will cover -3.5 points. Perrault is leaning towards the former.

You can find the Warriors +140 moneyline at BetMGM.

NBA Prop: G/F Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)

The bet: Over 5.5 rebounds
The odds: -135
Where to bet: DraftKing Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via Warriors vs Celtics Player Props

Wiggins has revived his career during his tenure with the Warriors. The former No. 1 overall pick came to Golden State as a one-dimensional scoring threat who did most of his damage in the midrange. He’s gotten far more efficient in Golden State, posting a career-best .543 effective field goal percentage in each of the past two years.

Wiggins has also gotten better on the boards. He’s averaged 6.8 rebounds per game during the postseason, and he’s racked up at least five boards in nine straight games. He’s gone over 5.5 boards in each of his past two contests, and I see no reason why he can’t make it three in a row on Friday.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: F/C Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors)

The bet: Over 7.5 points
The odds: -125
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The folks from BetPrep are rolling with Draymond Green Over 7.5 points for Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Here’s the rationale:

• Green has scored eight-plus points in six of his last seven after a loss.
• Green has scored eight-plus points in four of his last five as an underdog.
• In Game 1, Green attempted 12 shots. He only made two of them.

If Green sees double-digit field goal attempts in Game 4, then he should be able to surpass 7.5 points. His field goal percentage is 52.5% on the season, so an average outing should put him north of this points prop without factoring in free throws or threes.

You can find Green Over 7.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook.