The Colts have relied heavily on the run under the leadership of interim head coach Jeff Saturday. However, they might need to use the passing game more often tonight in a challenging matchup for the rushing attack. The following Colts vs. Steelers player props were selected in anticipation of Indy choosing the path of less resistance tonight.
Colts vs. Steelers Player Props: MNF Week 12
For a full list of Colts vs. Steelers player props and odds, check out our dedicated NFL player props matchup page.
Matt Ryan Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Colts have deployed a balanced offense in the two games, with Saturday leading them. According to numberFire, they’ve attempted 52 passes and 46 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in the past two weeks.
However, Pittsburgh’s run defense is stout. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are seventh in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 18th in pass defense DVOA. Thus, the Colts should have an easier time moving the ball against Pittsburgh through the air.
But, of course, that’s contingent on Matt Ryan having something left in the tank. It’s been an underwhelming first season with the Colts for Matty Ice. However, he has significant indoor/outdoor splits.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, Ryan averaged 229.7 passing yards per game with one touchdown and seven interceptions in three outdoor games. Yet, he’s averaged 292.3 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in one game in a dome and five in a stadium with a retractable roof.
The sample is small. Nevertheless, it makes sense that a quarterback at the tail end of his career would struggle to deal with mother nature and perform better indoors. So, I trust the splits and will bet on Ryan passing for more than 232.5 yards tonight.
Where to bet: Matt Ryan Over 232.5 Passing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Parris Campbell Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Parris Campbell should be busy when Matty Ice takes to the air. The fourth-year pro has had 38 targets, a 23.5% Target Share, 29 receptions, and 270 receiving yards in Ryan’s last four starts. Campbell’s numbers have amounted to per-game averages of 9.5 targets, 7.25 receptions, and 67.5 receiving yards in the four-game sample.
Additionally, Campbell’s median outcome was 68.5 receiving yards, and he eclipsed 45.5 receiving yards in all four of those contests. Fortunately, the Steelers are unlikely to slow Campbell’s roll. According to Football Outsiders, No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the second-most receiving yards per game (62.3) against the Steelers this season. I’m enamored with this bet and will take the over for 45.5 receiving yards by Campbell.
Where to bet: Parris Campbell Over 45.5 Receiving Yards | -106 at Caesars Sportsbook
Jonathan Taylor Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
It’s reasonable to question the process for hiring an analyst out of the studio who’s never coached above the high school level to lead an NFL club. However, Saturday has gotten the ball in Jonathan Taylor’s hands, to his credit. Last year’s leading rusher has toted the rock precisely 22 times in back-to-back games.
Yet, he’s also been involved as a receiver. Taylor hauled in two receptions for 16 yards in Week 10 and three for 10 in Week 11. Sadly, per Dwain McFarland, Deon Jackson handled 100% of Indy’s two-minute snaps last week. Nonetheless, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Taylor ran 23 routes versus just nine for Jackson in Week 11.
Taylor hasn’t commanded an exciting target rate in the last two weeks. Still, he’s running routes, and his five receptions were nothing to sneeze at. It’s also logical for offensive play-caller Parks Frazier to design some easy looks for Taylor in the passing game instead of running him into the teeth of Pittsburgh’s stout run defense. Will that come to fruition? It’s not a guarantee.
Yet, the matchup isn’t terrifying. Running backs have averaged 34.2 receiving yards per game against the Steelers this season, a pinch below the league average (35.3). Therefore, I’m happy to take the over for 12.5 receiving yards by Taylor tonight.
Where to bet: Jonathan Taylor Over 12.5 Receiving Yards | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook