College Basketball Betting: No. 21 LSU Narrowly Favored Over No. 16 Kentucky

LSU Tigers forward Tari Eason shoots a jump shot against Texas State Bobcats
Image Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Bad news for sports bettors: College football’s bowl season has reached its conclusion, minus next week’s national-title clash of No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia.

Good news for sports bettors: College basketball’s regular season has made the glorious calendar turn to 2022, meaning the vast majority of remaining games will be conference clashes.

Tuesday’s marquee matchup features a pair of nationally ranked teams battling for SEC supremacy. It’s an especially crucial game for the home team, which is trying to avoid an 0-2 start in league play.

No. 16 Kentucky at No. 21 LSU

Kentucky Wildcats guard Sahvir Wheeler dribbles during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels
Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Tipoff Time: 7 p.m. EST
Venue: Maravich Assembly Center (Baton Rouge, LA)
TV: ESPN
Kentucky: 11-2 SU/7-6 ATS
LSU: 12-1 SU/10-3 ATS

Odds: Side & Total

Sportsbook Spread Total
BetMGM LSU -2.5 (-110) 143.5
Caesars LSU -2 (-110) 144
DraftKings LSU -2 (-110) 144.5
FanDuel LSU -2.5 (-110) 144.5
PointsBet USA LSU -2 (-110) 144

*Odds updated as of 1 p.m. on Tuesday, Jan. 4.

Betting Trends

Kentucky

  • The Wildcats have cashed in four straight games following a 1-4 ATS funk
  • Kentucky is ATS slumps of 1-7-1 on the road, 1-6 ATS as an underdog, and 0-8 when playing on Tuesday
  • The Over is 3-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last five as an underdog and 8-3 in its last 11 when facing a team with a winning record
  • The Under is 16-5 for Kentucky following a victory of 20-plus points

LSU

  • The Tigers are on a 10-0-1 ATS roll at home since last season, including 8-0 ATS this year
  • LSU is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 as a favorite, 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 as a home chalk, and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five Tuesday contests
  • The Under is 11-1 in the Tigers’ last 12 games overall, including 6-1 at home. The totals in those seven home games: 155, 123, 138, 117, 136, 131 and 132 points
  • The Under is 9-1 in LSU’s last 10 when installed as a favorite

The Series

  • The underdog has cashed in nine of the last 13 head-to-head meetings
  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five regular-season matchups

Odds & Ends

LSU Tigers forward Tari Eason (left) dribbles against Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
Image Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

— At DraftKings, Kentucky (1-0 in SEC) has the eighth-best odds to win the NCAA title (+2,200). Down the line, LSU slots 20th on the national championship odds board at +4,500, tied with Texas Tech and Arkansas.

— Kentucky is averaging 92 points during its current four-game SU and ATS winning streak. John Calipari’s squad cleared the 90-point barrier in each of those contests, except for Wednesday’s 83-56 SEC-opening rout of Missouri at home.

— The Wildcats’ dropped their season-opener 79-71 to Duke as a 2.5-point neutral-site underdog. Their only other defeat was a 66-62 setback at Notre Dame as a 4.5-point road favorite on Dec. 11.

— LSU’s perfect season came to a screeching halt Wednesday when it traveled to Auburn and got spanked 70-55 as a 4.5-point road ‘dog in the SEC opener for both squads.

— Since starting off the season 9-1 ATS, the Tigers have failed to cash in two of their last three.

— Kentucky is 3-7 SU in road or neutral-site games against ranked opponents since November 2019. Only three of those 10 contests ended with a combined total that was above tonight’s consensus tally of 144 points.

— Dating back to January 2016, LSU is 5-7 SU at home versus ranked opponents. Ten of those games soared Over 144 points, including seven games with 152 points or more.

— Each of Kentucky’s previous 13 SU victories have been by 12 points or more. The Wildcats scored at least 76 points in 12 of those outings. The lone exception: A 70-55 road rout of No. 19 Tennessee on Feb. 20 of last year.

— Likewise, 10 of LSU’s last 12 wins this season have been double-digit routs. However, only three of those wins came against Power 5 opponents: 68-63 vs. Penn State in overtime; 75-61 over Wake Forest; and 69-53 at Georgia Tech.

Kentucky and its opponents are averaging 144.4 combined points per game this season, whereas LSU and its foes are averaging 133 points per outing.

— Player to Watch: LSU sophomore Tari Eason leads the Tigers in scoring (15.8 points per game) and ranks second in rebounding (7.4 per game). The Cincinnati transfer has notched 20-plus points four times this season, highlighted by a 23-point, six-rebound performance in the Tigers’ 16-point rout of Georgia Tech on Dec. 11. The 6-foot-8 forward has collected five-plus rebounds in 11 of 12 games, including three double-digit efforts.

Jay Clemons
Jay Clemons remains the only sports writer on the planet to capture Cynposis Media's national award for Sports Blog Of The Year (beating out NBA.com, MLB.com, PGATour.com, The Players' Tribune in 2015), along with the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's pre-eminent award for Best Football Writer (2008). Through the years, Mr. Clemons has been a key figure with numerous blue-chip sports/media brands, namely the Detroit Lions, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, Bleacher Report and now American Affiliate's Props.com. Clemons, a graduate of Michigan State University and Wayne State University, has been an on-camera Web-TV host for Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report and FOX Sports. In 2015, he also became the first-ever sports journalism professor at Kennesaw State University in suburban Atlanta. And for the betting community, covering the last two years of the sports calendar (2019-20 / 2020-21), Clemons enjoyed a rock-solid winning rate of 59.6 percent with point-spread and over/under selections (NFL, college football and college basketball.)

Related