The Buccaneers can win the NFC South, despite struggling to find their footing this year. Conversely, Arizona’s season is cooked. Yet, motivation isn’t the most decided advantage for the Buccaneers on Sunday night. Can Tampa Bay get out of its own way and steamroll the Cardinals? We’ll look at both teams and provide our favorite Cardinals vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucs | -7.5 | -365 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| @ Cardinals | +7.5 | +300 | U 40.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7 p.m. ET on Dec. 23. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review to find out how to bet $5 on any team to win $150.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
- TV: NBC
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Trends
- The Buccaneers opened as 3.0-point favorites on Sunday (12/18) morning, quickly climbed to a 6.5-point favorite by late Tuesday morning, and have settled in as a 7.5-point favorite since Wednesday afternoon.
- The Cardinals are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.
- Arizona is 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 home games.
- The Cardinals are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games on grass.
- The Buccaneers are 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Tampa Bay is 16-5-1 against the spread in their last 22 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
The Cardinals are Spiraling Down the Toilet Bowl
The Cardinals are limping to the finish line. They’ve scored 13 and 15 points in losses after their bye in Week 13. They’ve lost four straight and scored 24 points or fewer in each loss. The defense allowed at least 24 points in each of those contests. Their margins of loss were 28, 1, 14, and 9 points.
Arizona is a trainwreck on both sides of the ball. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are 28th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 9. Remarkably, they were slightly worse on defense, ranking 30th in total defense DVOA.
Somehow, it can get worse. Kyler Murray suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 14, and backup quarterback Colt McCoy was concussed last week. McCoy is out this week, leaving Trace McSorley as the starter and David Blough behind him.
The quarterback situation is a nightmare, but there’s also off-field drama.
It would be fascinating if Michael Bidwill won’t want to fire Kliff Kingsbury to avoid paying a contract buyout but Kingsbury leaves anyway due to not wanting to put up with ownership.
From this you just look like you as an owner are interfering with giving your coach a shot. pic.twitter.com/90pq6sVP6C
— Blake Allen Murphy (@blakemurphy7) December 23, 2022
The end of the season can’t come soon enough for the Red Birds.
The GOAT and Tampa’s Defense Can Get it Done
The Bucs lead the NFC South with a 6-8 record. Oddly enough, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they have the worst point differential (-41) in the division. Nevertheless, they have a few bright spots.
Tom Brady has had a forgettable season. Still, he’s piled up yardage, avoided sacks, and taken care of the football. The G.O.A.T. is third in passing yards per game (278.4), second in interception rate (1.1%), and first in sack rate (3.0%) among qualified quarterbacks.
The defense has also been good, for the most part. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs have allowed the ninth-fewest yards per play (5.1) and are tied for the 10th-fewest points allowed per game (20.6%).
A look at the game log for the Bucs is revealing. They’ve allowed 41 points to the Chiefs, 27 to the Ravens (when Lamar Jackson was healthy), 35 to the 49ers, and 34 to the Bengals. Three teams that torched them have top-shelf offenses, and the Ravens had a dynamic quarterback. They’ve held all of the other teams they’ve faced to 21 points or less in regulation (the Browns scored 23 points in Week 12 but recorded a game-winning touchdown in overtime). Thus, they shouldn’t have any problem against McSorley and the Cardinals.
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Sometimes, it’s wise not to overthink things. Arizona’s season has fallen apart, and they’re led by a third-string quarterback who’s been overwhelmed in his limited opportunities in the NFL and wasn’t an exceptional college quarterback.
Conversely, the Bucs are scratching and clawing for a playoff berth, have the G.O.A.T. at quarterback, and have a competent defense. For all of their faults, the Bucs are considerably better than the McSorley-led Cardinals. Thus, I’m happy to lay the 7.5 points on the Bucs.
Pick: Buccaneers -7.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook