A glance at the schedule before the season would have generated excitement for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers hosting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens for Thursday Night Football. But, unfortunately, both offenses have been struggling. Still, the game’s spread is small, suggesting a competitive contest. However, should bettors pick a winner or invest in the game’s total? Let’s break it down with our top Buccaneers vs. Ravens predictions.
Buccaneers vs. Ravens Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -3 (-105) | -175 | O 45 (-110) |
| @ Browns | +3 (-115) | +145 | U 45 (-110) |
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 10 pm ET on Oct. 25.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 27
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
- TV: Amazon
Buccaneers vs. Ravens Trends
- The total opened at 43.5 points at BetMGM and has slowly climbed to 45.5 points as of Tuesday night.
- The under is 12-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 13 games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- The under is 9-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
- The under is 6-1 in the Buccaneers’ last seven games.
- The under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last seven games after accumulating fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.
- The under is 8-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 games following an against-the-spread loss.
- The under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ last four games.
- The under is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last four games after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
- The under is 6-1 in the Ravens’ last seven games following a straight-up win.
The Bucs are Bumbling
The Bucs have lost back-to-back games and four of their last five. Additionally, Tampa Bay’s offense has been dreadful. They’ve scored 21 points or fewer in six of seven games. Yikes.
So, according to Football Outsiders, they’re 19th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades them 14th in total offense.
Traditional statistics aren’t kind to the Bucs, either. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tampa Bay is 25th in yards per play (5.1) and tied for 26th in scoring (17.7 points per game). So, they’ve struggled on offense, no matter how you slice it. As a result, Tom Brady has showcased some displeasure with his offensive line.
Tom Brady yelling at the offensive line like he doesn't need to step it up too. Week 6 wasn't pretty! They should have beaten the Steelers by 10. pic.twitter.com/hfEX0JHjAN
— Kevyn “Digital Kev” Bryant (@DigitalKev06) October 18, 2022
However, their defense is stout. Tampa Bay is fifth in total defense DVOA and ranks 10th in total defense at PFF. The Bucs have also allowed the seventh-fewest yards per play (4.9) and are fifth in scoring defense (17.7 points per game). So, the Bucs aren’t entirely hapless.
The Ravens aren’t Rolling Offensively
Baltimore’s offense came out of the gates hot. As a result, they’re sixth in scoring (25.9 points per game) and fifth in total offense DVOA. They’ve gone cold, though. They’ve scored 20, 19, 20, and 23 points in the last four weeks. They’ve also had less than 300 total yards on offense twice since Week 4.
Fortunately for the Ravens, their defense has stepped up. They’ve held their last four opponents to 24 points or fewer. Baltimore has also allowed 326, 291, 238, and 336 total yards of offense in the last four weeks.
Moreover, the Ravens have done an outstanding job forcing turnovers. They’ve forced at least one turnover every game this year, forcing multiple turnovers in five games. Baltimore’s ability to cause havoc doesn’t end with turning opponents over. Instead, they’re sixth in sacks (20).
So, while Brady doesn’t often put the ball in harm’s way, the Ravens can put him on his back. The G.O.A.T. has taken a sack in six games this year, getting sacked multiple times in three contests. So, even if the Ravens fail to force him into turnovers, they can put Tampa Bay’s offense in unfavorable down and distances by sacking Brady.
Buccaneers vs. Ravens Predictions
The defenses in this contest have been considerably better than the offenses lately. So, a defensive slobber knocker might be in order. But, of course, many of this year’s Thursday Night Football Games have failed to produce fireworks.
The Cardinals and Saints were the exceptions to the rule last week, lighting up the scoreboard for 76 points. Still, the median total for Thursday Night Football this year is 42, and the game’s average total is just 42.29 points. Additionally, four Thursday Night Football games in 2022 have gone under this game’s total of 45.5 points.
As a result, between the offensive struggles for the Bucs and Ravens, their stellar defensive showings lately, and the Thursday Night Football scoring outputs this year, the under is an attractive bet. In fact, Under 45.5 points is my favorite bet for this game.
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Pick: Under 45.5 Points | -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook