The Broncos and Colts were touted as intriguing teams in the offseason. Sadly, they haven’t lived up to expectations. So, what looked like an exciting game on paper before the season is projected to be a low-scoring contest between teams hoping to turn things around.
Still, the spread is small, and there’s hope for a compelling game. So, which team do we expect to come out victorious? Or should bettors focus on the game’s total? We’ll look at both teams to provide you with our Broncos vs. Colts predictions and best bets for this Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 5.
Broncos vs. Colts Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | +3.5 (-128) | +148 | O 42.5 (-106) |
| @ Broncos | -3.5 (-102) | -186 | U 42.5 (-114) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11 pm ET on Oct. 5.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 6
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field – Denver, CO
- TV: Amazon
Broncos vs. Colts Trends
- The total opened at 43.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook and has slipped slightly to 42.5 points as of Wednesday night.
- The under is 9-0 in the Colts’ last nine games.
- The under is 4-0 in the Colts’ last four games following a loss against the spread.
- Indy’s last five road games have gone under.
- The under is 6-1 in the Broncos’ last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- The under is 9-3 in Denver’s last 12 games on grass.
Russ Hasn’t Been A Five-Star Chef
Denver’s season high for points is 23. They’ve scored 11, 16, and 16 points in the other three games. Woof. It’s been ugly. In addition, the Broncos have had less than 300 total yards of offense in back-to-back games, and they haven’t had more than 20 first downs in a game.
The Broncos haven’t lived up to the expectations of making a trade for a franchise quarterback and replacing a departed defensive-minded head coach with a former offensive coordinator. Instead, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks their offense 27th. In addition, per Football Outsiders, the Broncos are 24th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Thus, the advanced-stats providers have been as unimpressed by Denver as their traditional statistics would suggest.
Broncos’ RB Javonte Williams tore his ACL, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 3, 2022
As if things haven’t been bad enough, they’ll now have to navigate a season-ending injury to talented second-year running back Javonte Williams. Therefore, it’s difficult to imagine the offense firing on all cylinders on a short week while adjusting to a downgrade in their backfield.
No Jonathan Taylor Is A Problem
Williams isn’t the only talented young running back who isn’t playing tonight. Unfortunately, Jonathan Taylor is out, too. The Colts’ offense has struggled mightily, and Taylor’s absence won’t help. Indianapolis is 32nd in total offense DVOA. Furthermore, they’re ranked 21st in offense at PFF.
Thursday night will be the first game Jonathan Taylor's missed due to injury since at least junior high.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) October 5, 2022
Like Denver, Indianapolis turned to the trade market to upgrade at quarterback. Unfortunately, Matt Ryan has left a lot to be desired. PFF has graded Ryan 28th out of 36 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks this year as a passer. He’s only two spots higher than last year’s starter, Carson Wentz.
The gap has been even narrower for QBR. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Ryan is 23rd out of 32 qualified pitchers in QBR, and Wentz is directly behind him.
Finally, Indy’s offense has been graded a trainwreck by PFF and Football Outsiders, ranking 21st at the former and 32nd at the latter. Additionally, they’ve been a dumpster fire by traditional measures. The Colts have been shut out once and scored 17, 20, and 20 points in four games. So, this is another lousy offense.
Broncos vs. Colts Predictions
Two lousy offenses aren’t a recipe for scoring points. However, there’s more to like about our favorite bet. The pace should be slow. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are 18th in situation-neutral pace, and the Broncos are 28th.
Further, the defenses have been at least average. The Colts are 13th in total defense DVOA, and the Broncos are eighth. In addition, the Colts are 22nd in total defense at PFF, and the Broncos are seventh. Thus, the defenses have been considerably better than the offenses.
The absences of Williams and Taylor and the betting trends are also positives for the game’s under. So, there isn’t a reason to overthink this. Instead, my favorite bet is under 42.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook, where it’s a half-point higher than the other sportsbooks I checked. We’ll squeeze out every extra half-point we can get!
Pick: Under 42.5 Total Points | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
