The Broncos and Colts jumpstart Week 5 on Thursday Night Football. The game’s spread is small, and the total is low. So, it should be competitive, even if it might be a low-scoring battle.
Sadly, the game will also be without two of the game’s talented young rushers. Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams are out. Their notable absences were considered for our following favorite player props.
So, without further ado, let’s check out our favorite Thursday Night Football Prop Bets for Week 5.
TNF Prop Bets: Broncos vs. Colts Player Props
Here’s a trio of Broncos vs. Colts player props I like for Thursday’s game:
Melvin Gordon Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Melvin Gordon will likely lead Denver’s backfield in work.
Regardless, the Broncos might rotate Mike Boone and Latavius Murray into the mix, too. Furthermore, Gordon has been a fumbling machine, putting the ball on the ground four times and losing two this season. It’s not unreasonable to consider that Gordon could end up in the doghouse if he fumbles this week.
Justin Outten made it very clear Melvin Gordon will be the Broncos' featured back against the Colts.
"With Melvin, he's going to carry the load, obviously. We'll have a mix of Boone and then after that we got to figure out who can spell & who feels best in that position."
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) October 4, 2022
In addition, Gordon hasn’t shined this year. He has averaged only 34.8 rushing yards per game at 3.8 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, the veteran running back has the opposite of a get-right matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are second in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, per Pro-Football-Reference, Indy has allowed the seventh-fewest rushings yards (302) to running backs this year at a paltry 3.11 yards per attempt. Finally, according to Football Outsiders, the Broncos are 28th in situation-neutral pace.
So, Gordon’s ineffectiveness, the matchup, and Denver’s pace are all encouraging for Gordon falling short of 58.5 rushing yards tonight.
Where to bet: Melvin Gordon Under 58.5 Rushing Yards | -115 BetMGM Sportsbook
Courtland Sutton Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The slow pace mentioned above is suboptimal for Courtland Sutton’s over for receiving yards. Nevertheless, the wideout’s matchup is quite tasty.
The Colts are 27th in pass defense DVOA. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has also harshly graded their pass rush and coverage, ranking them 29th in pressure and 27th in coverage. In addition, they’ve yielded 78.7 receiving yards per game to No. 1 receivers, per Football Outsiders.
A team’s No. 1 receiver is sometimes subjective, but it’s evident for the Broncos. Sutton has been the apple of Russell Wilson’s eye. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Sutton is tied for the 11th-highest Target Share (27.6%) and has the second-most Intended Air Yards (511).
Sutton has parlayed his elite usage into 6.0 receptions and 85.8 receiving yards per game. Moreover, he’s gone over 64.5 receiving yards three times this season. I expect him to remain in his groove and have more than 64.5 receiving yards tonight.
Where to bet: Courtland Sutton Over 64.5 Receiving Yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kylen Granson Over 1.5 Receptions (-115)
Without Taylor, the Colts might need to rely on Matt Ryan’s arm more often tonight. All of Indy’s pass-catchers can be busier than usual if that’s the case. The Colts’ pass-catching corps isn’t bursting at the seams with talent, either. Michael Pittman is the runaway top option. Then, Alec Pierce is arguably the second-best option, but he’s a volatile pass-catcher as a downfield weapon.
Parris Campbell has been getting in his steps but hasn’t produced much in the box score. Instead, Ryan has leaned on Indy’s trio of tight ends, which includes Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, and Kylen Granson. All three have rotated into the action. Yet, Woods has been comfortably behind Alie-Cox and Granson in routes.
More Broncos vs. Colts Player Props: Want to see all the props for this game? Check out our new matchup page!
In Week 1, Week 3, and Week 4 (excluding the Week 2 contest without Pittman and Pierce), Alie-Cox ran 70 routes, Granson ran 58, and Woods ran 26, per PFF. Granson led the group with 12 targets, earning a target on a stellar 20.7% of his routes. Moreover, he had a shallow average depth of target of only 5.8 yards. So, Granson has been targeted on high-percentage throws, enhancing his odds of catching his targets.
Granson also has at least two receptions in every game, reeling in two, two, three, and four receptions this year. In addition, the second-year tight end has averaged 2.8 receptions per game with a mean of 2.5 receptions. Finally, Denver’s opponents have actively targeted their tight ends, directing 7.4 passes per game to the position. As a result, I like Granson’s chances of having more than 1.5 receptions in his fifth consecutive game to start his 2022 campaign.
Where to bet: Kylen Granson Over 1.5 Receptions | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Thursday Night Football Bets
Broncos vs. Colts Predictions & Best Bets – Thursday Night Football Picks (Week 5)
NFL Same Game Parlay Picks – SGP Betting For Broncos vs. Colts (TNF Week 5)