Brewers Vs Padres Odds: Surging San Diego A Home ’Dog

San Diego Padres right fielder Wil Myers (right) is congratulated by shortstop Jake Cronenworth (9) after scoring a run on a bunt against the Milwaukee Brewers
Image Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball keeps setting ’em up, and the San Diego Padres keep knocking ’em down — but apparently not with enough force to impress bookmakers. After San Diego rallied for its fifth straight victory Monday night, Padres vs Brewers odds are back on the board Tuesday, with the Swinging Friars listed as a … home underdog?

Indeed, oddsmakers are siding with Milwaukee and reigning National League Cy Young Award-winner Corbin Burnes. San Diego counters with veteran lefty Blake Snell, who finally made his season debut last week (and looked rusty in doing so). Because of the pitching matchup, those same oddsmakers expect a second straight low-scoring contest between these teams — in fact, the Brewers-Padres total matches Marlins-Rays for the lowest on Tuesday’s MLB betting board. dives into Brewers vs Padres odds for the middle game of a three-game set at Petco Park in America’s Finest City.

Milwaukee Brewers-130+145 (-1.5 runs)6.5 (Over -125)
San Diego Padres+110-165 (+1.5 runs)6.5 (Under +105)

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 8:45 p.m. ET on May 24.

Milwaukee Brewers (26-16) vs San Diego Padres (28-14)

Milwaukee Brewers right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes grips the baseball with his right hand and delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs
Image Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

First Pitch/TV: 9:40 p.m. ET/TBS & MLB.TV
Pitching matchup: RHP Corbin Burnes (1-2, 2.26 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) vs LHP Blake Snell (0-1, 7.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP)
Season series: San Diego leads 1-0 after Monday’s 3-2, 10-inning victory.

Did you know: Despite Monday’s loss, Milwaukee is still 17-11 against the Padres since 2017, winning six of the last eight. The Brewers are also 9-4 in their last 13 contests at Petco Park.

About the Brewers 

Hits & Misses: Milwaukee plated two runs in the second inning Monday to take a 2-0 lead, but never crossed home plate again. The Brewers have followed a three-game winning streak with consecutive losses, tallying two runs in each contest. It’s been feast or famine lately for the offense, which has produced 26 runs in four of its last 10 contests but only 10 runs in the other six. Milwaukee went 8-1 on the road from April 12-May 6 but is just 3-6 in its last nine as a visitor. While the Brew Crew rank fourth in MLB in runs scored at home (5.30 per game), they’re 17th on the road (4.05). On the mound, Milwaukee is ninth in team ERA (3.41) and tied with the Padres for fourth in opponents’ batting average (.220). The Brewers still lead the NL Central by two games over the Cardinals.

Burnes vs San Diego: Burnes is coming off his worst outing of 2022. Facing the Braves at home on Wednesday, he surrendered four runs on seven hits (both season highs) in six innings, but Milwaukee rallied for a 7-6 victory. In his six previous starts, Burnes posted a 1.33 ERA (six earned runs allowed in 40.2 innings) with a 53-5 K/BB ratio. The 27-year-old from California hasn’t received much run support this season. In fact, the Brewers scored more runs against Atlanta on Wednesday (seven) than they had tallied in Burnes’ previous four starts combined (six). Burnes faced the Padres twice last season. He won 6-0 in San Diego (no runs, four hits, no walks, 10 strikeouts in six innings) and lost 7-1 at home (four runs, two hits, three walks, seven strikeouts in six innings). 

Key injuries: Closer Josh Hader (personal) is out indefinitely. SS Willy Adames (left ankle sprain) is not expected to return until at least early June.

About the Padres

Hits & Misses: San Diego’s current five-game winning streak has mostly been about pitching. Take out Friday’s 8-7 win at San Francisco, and the Padres have allowed four total runs in the other four games. During an ongoing 7-1 run that started May 15 in Atlanta, the pitching staff has yielded 17 runs — with seven of those coming Friday. Despite going 0-for-4 Monday, 3B Manny Machado still leads MLB with a .365 batting average. Machado scored the game-winning run Monday, giving him 34 runs on the season (4th in MLB). San Diego, which hasn’t had SS Fernando Tatis (broken wrist) all season, trails L.A. by just a half-game in the NL West. The Friars still have baseball’s third-best record and continue to lead the MLB betting standings (+1059 units). 

Snell vs Milwaukee: Snell missed the first six weeks of the season while recovering from a left abductor injury. He made his season debut Wednesday in Philadelphia and allowed three runs on three hits in 3.2 innings, suffering a 3-0 loss. The veteran southpaw finished last season strong. He gave up just nine runs in his final eight starts covering 44.1 innings (1.83 ERA). During this stretch, Snell notched 65 strikeouts against 14 walks. That said, including last week’s loss to the Phillies, San Diego is 1-6 in his last seven starts. Snell has faced the Brewers once, and it was 364 days ago in Milwaukee. He got lit up for five runs in 3.2 innings of a 5-3 loss. 

Key injuries: In addition to Tatis, San Diego has five RPs on the 60-day IL. OF Matt Beaty (shoulder) hit the 10-day IL last week and is out indefinitely.

Notable Trends

  • MIL is 0-6 in its last six vs. the NL West
  • MIL is 19-9 in its last 28 as a favorite
  • SD is on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 as an underdog and 10-3 vs the NL Central
  • SD is 13-29 in its last 42 as a home underdog
  • MIL is on Under runs of 5-2 overall and 5-1-2 when Burnes starts
  • SD is on Under runs of 5-1 overall, 12-5 at home and 6-1-1 when Snell starts
  • Under is 9-3 in the last 12 Padres-Brewers battles (4-0 last four in SD)

Brewers vs Padres Odds and Action

UPDATE 8:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Less than an hour before first pitch, the Brewers are up to a -130 road favorite at DraftKings, up from the opening number of -115. San Diego has gone from -105 to a +110 home underdog. As of 5 p.m. ET, Milwaukee was seeing the bulk of the moneyline action at 61% tickets/74% money.

The total opened at 6.5 flat (-110) at DraftKings and has remained there, except for a trip to 7/Under -125 earlier this afternoon. It’s currently priced at 6.5/Over -125. DraftKings reported earlier that 86% of the wagers and 64% of the dollars were on the Over.

UPDATE 12:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY: BetMGM installed Burnes and the Brewers as a -130 favorite, with San Diego a +110 home underdog. The moneyline is currently out to Brewers -135/Padres +115. The total opened at 6.5 flat (-110 both ways) but is now 6.5/Over -125.