One of my circled spots for NFL props as we prepare for Week 16 is the Los Angeles Rams offense.
I know what you may be thinking: “Of course we should target the Rams! They have one of the best offenses in the league.” I’m not denying that, but what makes this a particularly good week to bet on them is the defense on the other end.
No team allows more yards to wide receivers than the Minnesota Vikings, and only two teams allow more passing yards overall.
This Vikings secondary is a serious issue, and they’ve been extremely generous to both wide receiver and quarterback prop success of late. It’s best we continue betting against this pass defense, and luckily for us, we get one of the best passing attacks this weekend to take advantage of it.
It’s too early for official lines from sportsbooks, but BetPrep has Matthew Stafford projected at 297.5 yards and Cooper Kupp projected at 108.5 receiving yards.
Digging Into This Vikings Vulnerability
Minnesota is allowing 190.71 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the most in the NFL. Top receivers have consistently hit their receiving yards prop against this team, with Darnell Mooney the most recent on Monday Night.
DVOA pits the Vikings as a below-average pass defense, and their secondary ranks in the bottom ten of yards per pass attempt, a strong metric that highlights teams allowing chunk yardage through the air.
Justin Fields, who has struggled for Chicago this season, threw for the second-most passing yards of his career against this team on Monday, finishing with 285.
This defense struggles and we have just a few weeks left to capitalize.
Rams Offensive Production
There comes a point where we need to just accept a magical season and ride the momentum as long as it goes.
Cooper Kupp now has 5 games this season with 2+ TDs
On the night:
• 9 receptions
• 136 yards
• 2 TDpic.twitter.com/PZVwIZ4KtU— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 22, 2021
Kupp has 92+ yards in every game but one this season, more than 123 in three consecutive contests.
There’s no debate here, no matter what the line opens, I want a piece of Kupp against the worst secondary against WRs in the league. The only concern you can come up with is the idea of regression, but what has Kupp shown you that suggests that’s coming anytime soon?
He is one of the best receivers in the NFL and gets the softest opponent he’s had all season. Monster game inbound for the Pro Bowler, and I’ll be betting his over.
For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.
