Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course! Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em NFL props challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 15.
Amari Cooper PLUS 12.5 Receiving Yards Vs. CeeDee Lamb
The Dallas Cowboys have an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver, including CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup. Unfortunately, injuries have limited the number of times all three wideouts have played together this year. Moreover, Cooper had his playing time capped in Week 13 against the New Orleans Saints, coming back from COVID-19. Thus, one of the games the talented trio suited up together is a bit misleading, with Cooper playing only 34% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Thankfully, that still leaves us with three games of data to analyze from Week 1, Week 10, and Week 14. According to Pro Football Focus, Cooper ran the most routes (136) on the team, and Lamb ran the third-most routes (106). However, Lamb was targeted more often (33 versus 28) and bested Cooper in receiving yards (259 versus 241). Still, Cooper held the edge in receptions (22 versus 20). So, they were options 1A and 1B.
Looking at the game log, Cooper bested Lamb in receiving yards outright in Week 1, but Lamb held the edge in Week 10 and Week 14. However, in only one of those three games, Lamb has had more than a 12.5-yard advantage over his running mate.
So, again, I view this as a borderline co-top receiver situation and like taking the yardage with Cooper. Thankfully, Bet Prep is supporting my view. They project Cooper for 57.65 receiving yards and Lamb for 65.42 receiving yards.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our complete NFL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Laquon Treadwell OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards
The Jacksonville Jaguars fired Urban Meyer this week. So, it remains to be seen how the offense will change under interim head coach Darrell Bevell. However, Laquon Treadwell has done his part to remain an integral part of the passing attack.
In fact, the former first-round pick that’s been a bust to this point in his career is ascending. He’s set a season-high for receiving yards in three straight games, recording 53 in Week 12, then 62 in Week 13, and 68 in Week 14.
In addition, he’s not merely playing well relative to Jacksonville’s lackluster receiving corps. Instead, he’s playing at an above-average level relative to all receivers. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 12, among 72 receivers targeted at least 10 times, Treadwell has been 28th in yards per route run (1.79 Y/RR).
Thus, I like his odds of rolling in a plus matchup against the Houston Texans this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Texans allow the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in 2021. Finally, yet again, Bet Prep is onboard with my pick, projecting Treadwell for 37.11 receiving yards.
Nico Collins PLUS 5.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Laviska Shenault Jr.
Perhaps a change for the Jaguars will spark something with disappointing second-year receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. However, unlike Treadwell, he’s playing poorly. Among 63 receivers targeted at least 50 times this season, Shenault is tied for 54th with 1.28 Y/RR.
Further, since hitting or exceeding the 50-yard receiving threshold in four of his first six games, he’s railed to reach that mark in six of his last seven games. Therefore, Treadwell and Shenault are like two ships passing in the sea.
Meanwhile, Nico Collins is coming off of his best game in his rookie campaign, tying his season-high for playing time (70% offensive snap share) and setting bests in targets (10), receptions (five), and receiving yards (69).
The matchup is ideal for Collins building on last week’s career day. According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville is 31st in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Since I expect Collins to have more receiving yards, I’ll gladly take the 5.5 receiving yards as gravy. Perhaps I’m too bullish expecting Collins to have more receiving yards than Shenault, but Bet Prep supports taking the yards, projecting Shenault for 36.04 receiving yards and Collins for 31.33.
DeVante Parker OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
I can keep my analysis for this pick short and sweet, as DeVante Parker’s yardage prop is too low. Parker has played three games with Tua Tagovailoa in which the second-year quarterback didn’t leave early hurt. In those games, Parker has produced receiving yardage totals of 81, 85, and 62.
Now, he doesn’t have to compete for touches with Jaylen Waddle. The Miami Dolphins’ speedy rookie receiver is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. However, Parker’s likely uptick in volume should assuage any concerns about Waddle’s absence removing a threat from the offense.
Further, the matchup is mouthwatering. The New York Jets are dead last in pass defense DVOA. So understandably, Bet Prep projects Parker to comfortably clear 55.5 receiving yards with a projection of 60.45 receiving yards.
Julio Jones UNDER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Julio Jones made his return for the Tennessee Titans last week. Sadly, he wasn’t vintage Julio Jones. The oft-banged-up veteran played only 45% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps.
In addition, Jones’ 23 routes were second on the team but a distant 10 behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s team-leading 33. So, I question if he’s truly 100% healthy.
Understandably, given his modest playing time, Jones had only four receptions for 33 yards against Jacksonville’s dreadful pass defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t been anyone’s idea of a stingy pass defense. Nevertheless, they are a step up in competition for Jones. In addition, they’re 30th in rush defense DVOA compared to 22nd in pass defense DVOA. So, Mike Vrabel will likely try to run to his heart’s content, and the Steelers might not be able to do anything to dissuade him.
As a result, I love Jones’ under for 54.5 receiving yards. Finally, chalk this up as a fifth straight pick Bet Prep also encourages, projecting only 51.95 receiving yards for Jones.
