Week 15 officially begins with the Kansas City Chiefs at the Los Angeles Chargers. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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Justin Herbert MINUS 1.5 Passing Yards Vs. Patrick Mahomes
Picking between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes to lead this contest in passing yards is essentially splitting hairs, reflected by a spread of only 1.5 passing yards. However, I expect Herbert to have more success through the air.
First, according to Stat Head, since Week 6, Herbert has passed for 2,246 yards versus 2,152 yards for Mahomes in eight games each. Second, according to Sharp Football Stats, with the offensive scoring margin from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points in that time frame, the Chargers have passed at a 63% clip against a 62% rate for the Chiefs. So are the margin of passing yards and the neutral game situation passing rates tight? Yes. However, both slightly favor Herbert.
Most importantly, the defenses tip the scale to Herbert passing for more yards than his counterpart, Mahomes. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are ninth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 32nd in rush defense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 15th in pass defense DVOA and 20th in rush defense DVOA. So, the Chargers are more inviting to run against than pass against, and I think Andy Reid will accept the invitation to run on them.
As a result, Bet Prep projects Herbert for 264.58 passing yards and Mahomes for 247.90 passing yards. Thus, Herbert is projected to comfortably lay the 1.5 passing yards to Mahomes and win this prop.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our complete NFL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Mike Williams OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards
I expect Herbert to have success through the air. Ergo, I expect some of his pass-catchers to thrive as well, including Mike Williams. When the Chargers and Chiefs met in Week 3, he barbecued Kansas City’s secondary for 122 receiving yards on seven receptions. Unfortunately, save for a Week 5 explosion, Big Mike hit the skids for an extended stretch.
Nonetheless, he’s bested 57.5 receiving yards in eight of 13 contests. Moreover, he has been on the upswing again lately, clearing his yardage prop in three of his last four games. The big-bodied wideout hasn’t been as consistent as running mate Keenan Allen. Still, he was thriving next to him in four games before Allen’s Week 14 absence on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
According to Pro Football Focus, from Week 10 through Week 13, Williams ran 163 routes and amassed 279 receiving yards versus 164 routes and 329 receiving yards for Allen. So, I’m not concerned about the return of Allen this week.
Finally, the pace is favorable for overs in this contest. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs play at the fourth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Chargers play at the sixth-fastest rate. As a result, Bet Prep likes the over for Williams, too, projecting 60.11 receiving yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
I’m picking Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s over for total yards as an extension of the thoughts I’ve laid out above. First, I noted that I expect Reid to take the Chargers’ invitation to run against their soft rush defense. Second, I discussed the breakneck pace.
Going a step further, the Chiefs are 3.0-point favorites. Thus, I expect this to be a close game the Chiefs might lead, enhancing the case for running against the Chargers. Unfortunately, CEH shares backfield duties with Darrel Williams, often ceding passing-game work to his backup.
Nevertheless, CEH has gone over 68.5 total yards in two of three games since returning from injury and five of eight games overall in 2021. Also, the second-year back has commanded more carries than Williams, providing him the opportunity to run against a defense allowing the second-most rushing yards to running backs this season. Finally, even in a shared backfield role, CEH has reeled in multiple receptions in three straight games and six games for the year, adding some yardage through the air. Once again, Bet Prep likes my pick, projecting CEH for 70.19 rushing plus receiving yards.
