An NFL player props betting strategy I’ve been deploying for weeks has been to bet on receivers going against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens’ secondary has been quite generous to pass-catcher production, and with their best corner, Marlon Humphrey, now out for the season, it’s only going to get worse for Baltimore.
In comes Jarvis Landry and the Browns. Due to a funky scheduling quirk, Cleveland played the Ravens in Week 12, went on bye, and now play the Ravens again.
In a lot of respects, Cleveland has been preparing for Baltimore for three weeks and will be looking to avenge the ugly 16-10 loss they had on the road.
In a key divisional matchup, here are three reasons Jarvis Landry will go over his receiving yards line in Week 14.
Landry’s receiving line is currently set at 55.5 yards on FanDuel.
Landry’s Role And Recent Output Against Baltimore
Landry is Baker Mayfield’s clear top receiver, playing the majority of the snaps on a consistent basis.
Even just in the last two games, Landry has seen 18 targets and ten catches.
It’s the game Landry put together against this very same Ravens team that has me liking his chances on Sunday. Landry caught six balls for 111 yards, his best game of the season.
We will look at the Week 12 #Browns–#Ravens tape on the Matchup show…
CLE pass game — Multiple TE sets; schemed throws for QB Baker Mayfield (PA/Dropback).
WR Jarvis Landry — 6-of-10 targets, 111 yards receiving. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/rkuutoxEnH
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 9, 2021
If Cleveland wants to score more than 10 points this time around, they need to protect the ball and attack this secondary.
That all starts with Landry.
The Ravens Secondary Is Seriously Struggling
Enough can’t be said about how hard of a time the Ravens have had guarding wide receivers.
Baltimore allows WRs to average 174.2 yards per game, the seventh-most in the league. They’ve also allowed 54 passes of 20 or more yards, the most in the NFL.
It’s this struggle against verticality that has plagued Baltimore all year and will be the reason Landry hits his over in Week 14.
BetPrep Trends
A bet cannot be locked in without first checking out BetPrep, and Landry’s page brings us to the finish line.
There are two rock-solid trends that suggest Landry should end up closer to 70 yards or more:
- Caught for 55+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 12 (75%) games when he had at least six catches last game. (avg. 66.9 per gm)
- Caught for 55+ receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 (87.5%) games when he had at least 100 receiving yards last game. (avg. 64.8 per gm)
Say no more; I’m rocking Landry this weekend. He has the volume you look for, the recent production against this same opponent, a poor defense on the other end, and data on his side.
Load Landry up, and enjoy the weekend’s slate of games!
For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.
