The 4.0 version of the 2021 College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and per usual, the playoff committee’s rankings don’t exactly align with the perceptions of oddsmakers (let alone those voting in the Associated Press Top 25 poll).
With two weeks before Selection Sunday (Dec. 5), three of the four playoff berths remain up for grabs. The other one? The clear-cut best team in the country has all but snatched it — and in doing so, earned a spot in either the Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl on Dec. 31.
Props.com breaks down the latest College Football Playoff odds heading into Week 13.
College Football Playoff odds via Caesars Sportsbook and updated as of 10 p.m. ET Nov. 23.
Playing Favorites
Georgia: Yes -4000/No +1800
Ohio State: Yes -220/No +180
Alabama: Yes -130/No +110
Cincinnati: Yes -120/No +110
Notre Dame: Yes +240/No -300
Michigan: Yes +400/No -500
Oklahoma State: Yes +400/No -500
Oklahoma: Yes +425/No -550
Short of Georgia melting down over the next two Saturdays in Atlanta — and melting down would consist of losing to 3-8 Georgia Tech on Saturday, then falling to Alabama in the SEC title game — the Bulldogs are certifiable locks for no lower than the No. 3 playoff seed.
This season, Georgia ranks first nationally in scoring defense (7.55 points per game) and total defense (236.0 yards per contest), and fourth in sacks (3.45 per game). The offense has generated 30 or more points in 10 consecutive outings. And in their clean sweep of SEC competition (8-0), the Dawgs enjoyed an average victory margin of 31.9 points.
Of course, this remarkable run of dominance will be a footnote in history if Georgia doesn’t go on to win the national title. And among the foes looking to prevent the Bulldogs from doing just that, Ohio State might be the most dangerous.
The Buckeyes have been riding a similarly stellar wave since mid-September, leading the nation in scoring offense (averaging 47.2 points per game) and beating every Big Ten opponent to date by at least nine points — including five victories by margins of 39, 49, 44, 28 and 49 points.
The latter was last week’s 56-7 rout of Michigan State, then ranked seventh in the College Football Playoff poll. By halftime, Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud had completed 32 of 35 passes for an absurd 437 yards and six touchdowns in leading his team to a 49-0 lead).
But unlike Georgia, which has a spot in Championship Weekend already sewn up, Ohio State (No. 2 in the last CFP rankings) must beat Michigan on Saturday to clinch the Big Ten East title. It’s a winner-take-all situation in Ann Arbor because, with a victory, the Wolverines (No. 5 CFP) would possess the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Cincinnati In Prime Position
Alabama (No. 3 CFP) might have the highest upside among the teams ranked in this week’s top four — if it wins at Auburn this week and topples No. 1 Georgia for the SEC championship. Those accomplishments — along with possessing the nation’s toughest schedule — could vault the Crimson Tide to the No. 1 seed.
However, the biggest winner this week was clearly undefeated Cincinnati, which finally nudged its way into the top four (thanks to last week’s blowout win of SMU, as well as then-No. 3 Oregon getting crushed at Utah).
A week ago when they were ranked No. 5 by the CFP committee, the Bearcats had odds of +320 to make the Playoff. Now they’re slight favorites to get into the tournament, as they seemingly control their own destiny.
If Cincinnati (11-0) beats East Carolina on Friday and Houston in next week’s American Athletic championship clash, it would most likely remain ahead of Notre Dame (10-1, and up to No. 6 in the CFP rankings). Remember, back in September, the Bearcats picked up their signature victory when they went to South Bend and upended the Irish.
Lingering as a potential party crasher is Oklahoma State (No. 7 CFP). The Cowboys (10-1) could continue to rise in the rankings if they knock off No. 10 Oklahoma on Saturday and potentially No. 8 Baylor in next week’s Big 12 championship.
However, even with both victories, it’s unlikely one-loss Oklahoma State would overtake undefeated Cincinnati (whose triumph over Notre Dame looks better and better each time the Irish wins).
Bettors Banking On Bama
To the surprise of nobody, Georgia is the runaway favorite to win the 2021 national championship. The Bulldogs are -125 at BetMGM to hoist the crystal ball.
What might be a bit surprising? Only two other teams sport reasonable national championship odds: Ohio State is +300 at BetMGM while defending champion Alabama is +350.
Things widen out considerably from there, with Cincinnati the current fourth choice at +3,000, followed by Notre Dame and Michigan (both +4,000). Big 12 rivals Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are next in line (both +5,000).
Interestingly enough, prior to the season, BetMGM had Georgia as the third choice to win the title at +800. The Bulldogs trailed only two teams — yep, Alabama (opened +300) and Ohio State (+500). Now those two teams are chasing the Dawgs.
The Crimson Tide still remain BetMGM’s biggest liability, as they lead in ticket count (22.9%) and money (27.4%). Georgia is second in tickets (11.9%) and handle (19.0%), followed by Ohio State (9.4% and 11.5%, respectively).
