The Houston Texans visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday in what should be a one-sided outcome.
Despite what may be a blowout, there is value to be had on the Houston side of the ball. Brandin Cooks is in an intriguing spot and worth your consideration when looking at his 5.5 receptions prop line.
All props and odds are via DraftKings as of 10:00 am on Nov. 19.
Houston Texans: Brandin Cooks
The Prop: Over 5.5 receptions at Tennessee Titans
The Odds: +100 on DraftKings
Brandin Cooks is far and away the only reliable offensive player on this Houston Texans offense.
There are defensive trends from the Titans that support this pick and some enticing BetPrep notes worth noting.
Here are three reasons to feel great about betting on Cooks to hit his reception prop this weekend, especially at +100.
Volume Is King
Cooks has 57 receptions on the year, 34 more than the next closest player, and 641 receiving yards (450 more than the next closest).
As you can see from the tweet above, Cooks is tied for ninth in the NFL in targets per game with 9.3, a metric I put a lot of weight into.
Targets Per Game Leaders: Weeks 1-10
1. Kupp (11.6)
2. Hill (11.1)
3. Adams (10.9)
t-4. Allen, Di. Johnson (10.3)
t-6. Samuel, Diggs (9.6)
8. D Moore (9.5)
t-9. McLaurin, Cooks (9.3)
11. Mar. Brown (9.1)
t-12. Waller, Kelce (8.9)
14. J. Jefferson (8.8)
15. Godwin (8.6)— GriffyBets (@griffybets) November 16, 2021
The only way to hit your props is to see the ball, and there should be no issues when it comes to Cooks seeing targets.
The Texans’ top receiver saw 13 targets just last week and has caught six catches in back-to-back weeks. Time to make it three straight.
Game Script And Tennessee’s Defensive Trends
Considering how a game will play out is one of the most important factors to consider before locking in a player prop.
In the case of Cooks’s receptions, the game script supports it no matter how you slice it.
The most likely outcome is the dominant Titans go out to an early lead and force the Texans to play catch-up. In this scenario, Cooks is going to see plenty of opportunities to haul in six catches.
The alternative is a surprising Houston lead. If the Texans can build up a big lead on Tennessee, logic suggests they threw the ball to their top weapon to do so.
This season, the Titans allow the most receptions per game to WRs, which put this pick on my radar.
There’s a lot to like about Cooks on Sunday.
BetPrep Likes It
Now, you know it’s not a finalized pick without perusing the BetPrep platform. I love already having a player on my radar and then searching them on BetPrep and having my hunch confirmed.
When you hit his Receptions prop, Cooks’s page is a beauty, loaded up with positive trends to push this 5.5 receptions prop to the finish line.
A sampling:
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 8 of his last 11 (72.73%) games when he averaged at least 6.5 targets per game.
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 8 of his last 11 (72.73%) games when he averages at least three catches per game.
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 8 of his last 11 (72.73%) games when he averaged at least 50 receiving yards per game.
- Recorded 6+ receptions in 8 of his last 11 (72.73%) games when he averaged at least 15 yards per catch.
Color me convinced, I love Cooks on Sunday!
Good luck this weekend, and for more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.