The biggest advantage I’m seeing this weekend favors the Cleveland Browns rushing attack going against the Detroit Lions. The Lions let up the third-most rushing yards per game. This is partly due to consistently falling behind in games and allowing opposing offenses to burn the clock.
Logic suggests the same recipe awaits us on Sunday, considering the spread is set at Browns -10. The Browns are tops in the NFL in yards per rush attempt and run at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (47.49% of plays).
With all signs indicating a strong rushing performance from Cleveland, the only thing left to do is get an understanding of the backfield.
Nick Chubb’s Status
Nick Chubb is one of the best runners in the NFL. However, he missed last week due to a positive Covid case. Early reports indicate the Browns are “hopeful” they’ll activate Chubb this week. Cleveland would welcome his return after a 45-7 thrashing at the hands of the Patriots.
Chubb has been dominant this season, but it’s stats like this that make you realize how powerful he’s been:
Highest yards per rush, since Week 6:
Justin Fields 7.2
Jonathan Taylor 6.9
Nick Chubb 6.6
Lamar Jackson 6.0
Javonte Williams 5.5*min. 30 rushes pic.twitter.com/8OrO6PrCE7
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 17, 2021
In the seven games Chubb has played this season, he’s averaging 103 yards per game and has scored six touchdowns. His over and a TD is a great stack against a Lions defense allowing the third-most running back TDs per game.
Browns Rushing: What To Do if Chubb Can’t Go
Don’t be alarmed if Chubb can’t go this weekend. The Browns’ rushing attack is still plenty capable.
In the two games he’s started, D’Ernest Johnson has proven to be more than capable of executing the power-rushing scheme that the Cleveland offensive line specializes in. Johnson’s two starts have seen him average 122.5 rushing yards per game, hitting his over both times.
No matter who the starting running back is against this Lions defense, bet their over confidently.
For more NFL betting info, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, as we prep for the entire Week 11 slate.