As you begin scanning NFL player props on the Week 10 board, keep your eye on Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.
Carr has been one of the best deep passers this season, with solid numbers accompanying his aggressiveness. The Raiders passer is in a good spot for another big game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
As of this writing, Carr’s line is not yet posted, but it’s circled as a clear target. BetPrep projects his line to open at 293.5 yards, a number they like quite a bit.
Here are three reasons to bet on Derek Carr to go over his passing yards prop in Week 10, no matter the total it opens at.
Carr’s Season Output
Carr has thrown 2,565 yards this season, an average of 320.63 yards per game, the second-highest mark in the league.
He’s had a huge season leading the Raiders to a 5-3 start and has gone over BetPrep’s projected line in six of eight games.
Even if sportsbooks open this line in the 300s, Carr remains a target.
Don’t be scared off by Henry Ruggs any longer being a part of this team. Yes, Ruggs was having a good season, but Las Vegas has other options in this passing game, notably Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Bryan Edwards.
Fitting right in, @DeSeanJackson10 💨 pic.twitter.com/EdNcpc17gL
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) November 10, 2021
The biggest x-factor may be the addition of DeSean Jackson, signed last week and expected to make his debut on Sunday.
If Jackson can harness some of his old deep-ball magic, Carr and this offense would be a huge boost.
Given Carr’s strong 2021 thus far, he will get the most out of Jackson.
Kansas City’s Defense
Don’t overestimate the Chiefs’ recent performance, holding Jordan Love and the Packers to just seven points.
This Kansas City defense has been awful all season, and their secondary will struggle to slow down this Raiders passing attack.
The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL in opponent’s yards per pass attempt and have allowed five opposing QBs to hit their passing yards over this season.
Considering how frequently the Raiders pass the ball (seventh-highest rate), they will have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on Sunday.
BetPrep Trends
It wouldn’t be a confident NFL bet without hopping over to BetPrep to find positive trends.
In the case of Derek Carr, his BetPrep page is beautiful. Green everywhere, it’s the final nudge we need to lock in this bet for Sunday.
Here’s just a sampling, there are a lot of positive trends that support Carr’s over:
- He passed for 294+ yards in 7 of his last 8 (87.5%) games when he threw for at least 200 pass yards the previous game.
- He passed for 294+ yards in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he threw for at least one pass TDs a previous game.
- He passed for 294+ yards in 7 of his last 8 (87.5%) games when he averaged at least 6 yards per attempt last game.
- He passed for 294+ yards in 7 of his last 9 (77.78%) games when averaging at least 30 pass attempts per game.
There is a lot to like about Carr in this one, and while we wait for sportsbooks to post his over, know that I’ll be betting it regardless of where it opens.
For more NFL info, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. Good luck in Week 10!