The Rams are exceeding expectations thus far, and the Bengals are doing the opposite. A significant injury casts a shadow over this contest, creating uncertainty and volatility. Regardless, the range of outcomes for Joe Burrow’s calf injury was considered when suggesting the following Bengals vs. Rams player props.
Bengals vs. Rams Player Props
Editor’s Note: The Monday Night Football prop bets for the Bengals vs. Rams game are available on DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Monday Night Football Props: Week 3
Here’s a trio of Bengals vs. Rams player props I like for Monday’s primetime matchup:
Van Jefferson Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Bengals are tough as nails against deep passes, where Van Jefferson’s bread is buttered. Cincinnati allowed only one completion for 33 yards on Deshaun Watson’s three passes that traveled at least 20 yards in Week 1 and held Lamar Jackson to one 52-yard completion on four deep passes in Week 2.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jefferson had one target behind the line of scrimmage, three short (zero to nine yards), three medium (10 to 19 yards), and two deep (20-plus yards) in the first two games this year, corraling three receptions for 35 yards. Thus, Jefferson was held under his line for this prop in both games this season.
He’s also behind target-hog Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Kyren Williams in the pass-catching hierarchy. Furthermore, if Burrow is out, plays poorly because of his calf injury, or re-aggravates the injury, the Rams could be in a positive game script, reducing the Rams’ need to pass. So, the outlook is bleak for Jefferson’s participation this week.
Where to bet: Van Jefferson Under 37.5 Receiving Yards | -115 BetMGM Sportsbook
Joe Mixon Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Bengals are a pass-first team. However, they might need to take some work off Burrow’s shoulders. Fortunately, the matchup is good for Joe Mixon and the rushing attack.
According to The 33rd Team, running backs have averaged 97.5 rushing yards per game at 5.3 yards per carry against the Rams this year. Kenneth Walker rumbled for 64 yards on 12 rushes in Week 1 against the Rams, and Christian McCaffrey steamrolled them for 116 yards on 20 rushes in Week 2.
Mixon hasn’t lit the world on fire yet this year. Still, he’s rushed for 56 yards and 59 at 4.42 yards per carry in the first two contests. The veteran running back’s underlying data is rock-solid, too. Mixon might not need an uptick in volume to exceed 58.5 rushing yards against LA’s soft run defense, but it wouldn’t hurt. Finally, the Bengals are favored, potentially setting the stage for a positive game script. It’s a stellar setup for Mixon this week.
Where to bet: Joe Mixon Over 58.5 Rushing Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
Tyler Higbee Under 3.5 Receptions (+130)
The emergences of Nacua, Atwell, and Williams have reduced the need for Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay to pump targets to, and design looks for Tyler Higbee in the passing game this year. As a result, Higbee’s been targeted on only 10.8% of his routes and has a matching target share.
The 30-year-old tight end had just three receptions in Week 1 and three more in Week 2, producing a hum-drum 61 receiving yards on his receptions. Therefore, Higbee isn’t playing at an efficient level that would encourage McVay to shift looks in the tight end’s direction.
The matchup doesn’t inspire confidence in Higbee’s pass-catching potential this week, either. The Bengals had a challenging runout for matchups with tight ends, facing David Njoku and Mark Andrews. Cincinnati held Njoku to two receptions in Week 1 and yielded five receptions to Andrews in Week 2.
Higbee isn’t in the same class of tight end as either Njoku or Andrews and the Bengals played reasonably well against the superior tight ends. And, again, Higbee’s target competition is stiffer this year without Cooper Kupp than it was without Kupp last year. So, I’m delighted to get plus odds on Higbee having fewer than 3.5 receptions for the third consecutive game to begin this season.
Where to bet: Tyler Higbee Under 3.5 Receptions | +130 DraftKings Sportsbook
