This NFL Player Props series takes a close look at Jonathan Taylor’s rushing total for Week 6.
Taylor is in a fantastic spot on Sunday afternoon when the Colts take on the Houston Texans. The Colts’ RB is coming off of a huge game against the Ravens on Monday night, and I think that should continue on Sunday. Taylor’s rushing prop is posted at 80.5 this week, but will he get enough touches to hit the over?
NFL Player Props Trends
Jonathan Taylor has only hit the over in one of his last five games if the number was 80.5 in those games. Taylor is in maybe the best spot of the year, especially when we think about game script, which seems to be a huge deal for Taylor.
The Colts just have one victory this season, and that was the game where Taylor did hit the over on his rushing prop with over 100 yards on 16 carries. I do think that we see a similar workload in this spot and maybe even a bit more if he isn’t crushing as he did in that win.
I do think that the re-emergence of Marlon Mack in the rotation is problematic for Taylor’s workload, but that shouldn’t be a major factor in this spot just due to the game script.
Matchup Against Houston
The Texans have not allowed any massive rushing games to great players this year, but multiple teams have had great games on the ground overall. I am 100% confident that this will be the case for this Colts team with an improving Carson Wentz and a great offensive line supporting their steeple of backs in a great spot overall.
Now, we have to have Taylor see the breakout game that hasn’t really happened this year, but I don’t think that this is a true trend based on anything that the Texans are doing defensively.
The Pick
Take the OVER on Taylor’s rushing prop, and just hope to get one chuck run that will get you over the hump.
