The Monday Night Football game between the Bengals and Bills is the game of the week and a possible playoff preview. These AFC juggernauts have well-rounded clubs. Yet, the offenses, led by elite young quarterbacks, are the headline. Can they produce the fireworks their high over/under suggests? Let’s look at both teams before providing our top Bengals vs. Bills predictions for Monday Night Football Week 17.
Bengals vs. Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -1 | -115 | O 49.5 (-110) |
| @ Bengals | +1 | -105 | U 49.5 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out our Caesars Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,250 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Jan. 2
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium — Cincinnati, OH
- TV: ESPN, ABC
Bengals vs. Bills Trends
- The game’s total opened at 49.5 points on Sunday (12/25), climbed to 50 briefly on Friday, and dipped back to 49.5.
- The under is 18-7-1 in Cincinnati’s last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.
- The under is 10-3 in the Bengals’ last 13 games on field turf.
- The under is 6-2 in Cincinnati’s last eight home games.
- The over is 10-2 in Buffalo’s last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- The over is 10-4 in the Bills’ last 14 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- The over is 11-5 in Buffalo’s last 16 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Cincinnati’s Offense is Elite
The Bengals had a Super Bowl hangover early. Fortunately, they must have consumed some delicious greasy food or utilized another trick for overcoming their hangover because they’re rolling. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bengals are fifth in scoring offense (26.1 points per game) and 12th in yards per play (5.6).
Additionally, they’re playing their best ball lately. Since their bye in Week 10, the Bengals have scored 37, 20, 27, 23, 34, and 22 points. And, according to Football Outsiders, they’re third in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), fifth in passing offense DVOA, and eighth in rushing offense DVOA since Week 10.
The Bengals have also moved the ball. Cincinnati had more than 360 total yards of offense in five of their last six games, clearing 400 yards three times. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon are a dynamic collection of talented players who can beat opposing defenses in various ways.
Buffalo Can Light Up the Scoreboard
The Bills are ahead of the Bengals in a few notable offensive categories. First, they’re third in yards per play (6.2). Second, Buffalo is fourth in scoring offense (28.0).
Buffalo is also in good form. They’re fifth in total offense DVOA, sixth in passing offense DVOA, and fifth in rushing offense DVOA since Week 10. Predictably, their success has resulted in points. The Bills have scored 30, 31, 28, 24, 20, 32, and 35 points in their previous seven games. Moreover, they eclipsed 350 total yards six times in that stretch and had more than 420 yards in their last two contests.
Josh Allen has played brilliantly and had head-scratching turnovers. The ups and downs have produced points for the Bills and their opponents.
Bengals vs. Bills Predictions
Cincinnati’s and Buffalo’s defenses are rock-solid or better. Yet, they can’t hold a candle to their offenses. Since Week 10, the Bengals are 18th in total defense DVOA, and the Bills are sixth in total defense DVOA. Additionally, both defenses have had lapses. For instance, the Bengals yielded 30 points to the Steelers in Week 10, and the Bills allowed 33 points to the Vikings in Week 10 and 29 to the Dolphins in Week 15.
The offensive tendencies of the Bengals and Bills are also optimal for scoring points. Both teams love to air it out. According to numberFire, the Bengals have attempted 81 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 154 passes in neutral game scripts since Week 10, and the Bills have attempted 100 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 183 passes. Their pass-happy approaches should chew up yards in chunks or result in a stopped clock on misfires.
The game’s pace should also be titillating. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are 15th in situation-neutral pace and play a pinch faster than the league average, and the Bills are seventh. So, the underlying data is encouraging for a shootout. And, of course, Burrow and Allen are elite quarterbacks. Thus, I’m excited to bet the over and enjoy the show.
Pick: Over 49.5 Points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook