The Steelers and Ravens engaged in a defensive slugfest in their first meeting of this season a few weeks ago. The defenses have been significantly ahead of the offenses while winning ugly, low-scoring games lately. Will the defenses continue to rule the roost? We’ll take a deeper dive below before offering our Ravens vs. Steelers prediction and favorite bet for this week’s Sunday Night Football contest.
Ravens vs. Steelers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | +2.5 | +122 | O 35.5 |
| @ Ravens | -2.5 | -144 | U 35.5 |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 7 p.m. ET on Dec. 31.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 1
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
- TV: NBC
Ravens vs. Steelers Trends
- The total opened at 36 points on Monday (12/26) and dipped a half-point to 35.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
- The under is 8-0 in Baltimore’s games on field turf.
- The under is 6-0 in the Ravens’ previous six home games.
- The under is 5-0 in Baltimore’s last five home games against a team with a losing record.
- The under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ previous four games against an opponent with a losing record.
- The under is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last four games following an against-the-spread win.
- The under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ previous four contests.
- The under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven games following a straight-up win.
- The under is 6-2-1 in the Steelers’ last nine games after allowing fewer than 250 yards of offense in the previous contest.
- The under is 5-2 in Pittsburgh’s previous seven games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in the prior game.
Baltimore is Unbalanced
The good news is Baltimore’s defense is talented. The bad news is their offense is lousy. Since Baltimore’s bye in Week 10, they’ve scored 13, 27, 10, 16, 3, and 17 points. In addition, per Pro-Football-Reference, they’ve had fewer than 325 yards of offense five times in that six-game stretch. The Ravens haven’t taken care of the ball, either. They’ve had seven turnovers and had at least one in four contests since their bye.
Still, they were 4-2 in their previous six games. So, of course, the defense did the heavy lifting. The Ravens allowed 14 points or fewer in their previous four games and six of their last seven. Moreover, they’ve held their opponents under 330 total yards in six of their previous seven games.
The advanced stats also reflected the sizable gap between Baltimore’s defense and offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are 23rd in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 10. Fortunately, they were second in total defense DVOA.
The Steelers are Different with Watt
Pittsburgh’s defense also carries them. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers are 28th in yards per play (4.9) and tied for 28th in scoring offense (17.6 points per game). The bye didn’t cure what ailed them, either. Instead, they’ve scored 20 points or fewer four times since their bye in Week 9. Further, they’ve scored 24 points or fewer in their last four games.
Yet, they were 5-2 in their last seven games. And, like the Ravens, they’ve won by playing elite defense. The Steelers have held everyone but the Bengals (37 points) to 17 points or fewer since their bye. T.J. Watt has played in every game since the bye.
Sadly, Watt hasn’t had a banner season for piling up sacks, but Pittsburgh’s defense has been markedly better when he’s played. In eight games when Watt’s suited up this year, the Steelers have allowed 20, 10, 37, 17, 16, 16, 16, and 10 points. The Bengals were responsible for the 20-point and 37-point efforts.
The Steelers have also done a rock-solid job of forcing turnovers this year. They’re tied for 13th in turnovers forced in 2022, forcing 20.
Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction
The defenses are much better than the offenses. Additionally, neither team wants to play fast. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 18th in situation-neutral pace, and the Ravens are 21st this season. Understandably, the game’s under is low. Still, betting on the under looks like the correct move.
Pittsburgh’s game totals have been 30, 67, 41, 35, 30, 40, and 23 points since their bye. So, the average was 38 points, but the median was 35 points, and the total was under 35.5 points four times in the Steelers’ last seven games.
Baltimore’s game totals have been similarly low since their bye in Week 10. The Ravens’ totals were 16, 55, 19, 30, 16, and 26 points in six games since their bye. The average during that six-game stretch was 27, the median was 22.5, and the games went under 35.5 points five times. Thus, I love the under.
Pick: Under 35.5 Points | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook