NFL Computer Picks Week 17: Model With 61% Accuracy Backs Saints

Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field on October 25, 2021 in Seattle, Washington.
Image Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images

These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.

We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.

The model went 1-2 last week, putting the season record at 91-57-1 overall. That’s a solid 61% hit rate across the first 16 weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.

NFL Computer Picks: Week 17

We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. There are three picks this week, including notable spreads and totals worth paying attention to:

Pick OpponentSimilar Matchup
Patriots -2.5vs. Dolphins88%
Dolphins-Patriots Over 42.579%
Texans +4.5 vs. Jaguars79%
Broncos +13.5at Chiefs100%
Bears +6at Lions88%
Bears-LionsUnder 5297%
Saints +6.5at Eagles100%
Saints-Eagles Over 4473%
Panthers +3 at Bucs76%
Panthers-BucsOver 4070%
Cardinals-Falcons Over 4290%
Vikings-PackersUnder 48.582%
Steelers +3.5at Ravens89%
Steelers-Ravens Over 3675%
Jaguars-TexansUnder 43.570%

Insights For Week 17

You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 16. There are two picks with 100% in the similar matchup column for Week 17.

  • Broncos +13.5 at Chiefs
  • Saints +7 at Eagles

On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 1-2 in Week 16. That threshold is now 51-39-1 (55%) on the season. On top of the aforementioned 100% pick, these bets made the cut for Week 17:

  • Patriots -2.5 vs. Dolphins
  • Dolphins-Patriots Over 42.5
  • Bears +6 at Lions
  • Bears-Lions Under 52
  • Cardinals-Falcons Over 42
  • Vikings-Packers Under 48.5
  • Steelers +3.5 at Ravens

NFL Computer Picks Reference

BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.

For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.

You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.

NFL Computer Picks Results

Season Overall: 91-57-1
Spread: 54-27-1
Totals: 37-30

NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles

You can browse previous editions of this article below: