The Patriots are more than a touchdown favorite against the Bears on Monday Night Football. So, thankfully, player props are here to keep the game interesting. New England is stellar at what you’d expect from a Bill Belichek team. They run the ball effectively and play stout defense. Add in the game’s spread, and a few Patriots vs. Bears player props stood out as appealing.
Patriots vs. Bears Player Props: Week 7
Here are the three Patriots vs. Bears player props I like for Monday Night Football.
Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions (-180)
The Bears have done everything they can to shield Justin Fields from throwing. Still, he’s thrown five interceptions, tossing at least one in four games. In addition, per Pro-Football-Reference, the second-year quarterback has the second-highest interception rate (4.3%) among qualified quarterbacks this year.
So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise Fields has routinely put the ball in harm’s way. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Fields’ 5.0% Turnover-Worthy-Play rate is the fourth-highest mark among 33 quarterbacks who’ve dropped back at least 100 times in 2022. Additionally, the raw total of seven turnover-worthy plays is appealing to pick on with New England’s talented defense.
According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are sixth in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They’ve also done a superb job of producing interceptions, picking off six passes this year. Additionally, the Patriots have recorded an interception in five consecutive games. So, when the sizable-underdog Bears are forced to throw, Fields is likely to throw an interception. The line is a little chalky, but I’m elated to eat the chalk.
Where to bet: Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions | -180 at DraftKings Sportsbook
David Montgomery Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-111)
David Montgomery has had more than 13.5 rush attempts three times in five games this season. Interestingly, he did so twice in losses. However, Montgomery has rushed 12 times and 15 times in two games since returning from an injury. The fourth-year back has ineffectively amassed 87 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Yuck.
Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert has rumbled for 85 yards on 11 attempts in the last two games. Herbert has been markedly better than Montgomery, and it appears the coaching staff is finally willing to act on the production discrepancy. Head coach Matt Eberflus said they’ll “go with the hot hand” regarding the team’s backfield.
So, the more effective Herbert may leave Montgomery in the dust. Moreover, the Bears are 8.0-point underdogs at many sportsbooks. So, a negative game script would make it challenging for Montgomery to attempt more than 13.5 rushes as the lead back. The murky playing time situation and probable negative game script are a recipe for Montgomery carrying the ball fewer than 13.5 times.
Where to bet: David Montgomery Under 13.5 Rush Attempts | -111 at Caesars Sportsbook
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
Damien Harris is back. So, Rhamondre Stevenson will cede some work to his talented backfield mate. Nevertheless, Stevenson had already earned a higher snap share than Harris when the duo played together before Harris’s injury. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Harris had snap shares of 38% and 45% in the last two games he was healthy enough to finish, and Stevenson had snap shares of 62% and 55% in those games.
Additionally, Stevenson has rushed for at least 66 yards in four consecutive games, including the last two in which Harris was also healthy. The second-year back averages 74.7 rushing yards per game with a median outcome of 69.5.
Stevenson is also an advanced-metrics darling. According to PFF, out of 51 running backs with at least 30 rush attempts this year, Stevenson is tied for 12th in yards per carry (5.1), tied for ninth in Missed Tackles Forced (19 MTF), tied for sixth in 10-plus yard rushes (12), and seventh in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.98 YCO/A).
Finally, the matchup is sweet. The Bears are 27th in rush defense DVOA, have allowed the most rushing yards (737) to running backs, and have been gashed for 4.69 yards per carry by them. Thus, I’m betting on Stevenson rushing for more than 61.5 yards.
Where to bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 61.5 Rushing Yards | -106 at Caesars Sportsbook