The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, Sept. 23
Dean Kremer: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.33 ERA indicates
Kremer has thrown surprisingly well this season. He’s recorded a 7-5 record with a 3.33 ERA through 19 games (18 starts). He’s due for some regression, though, as he also owns a 4.36 xFIP in those games.
Kremer was throwing at a high level for several starts, but that isn’t the case anymore. He’s posted 4.78, 5.69, and 6.80 xFIPs in his last 3 starts. Surprisingly, he didn’t find regression in any of those games.
Kremer gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros tonight. Houston’s been on fire in recent games, posting a .346 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The Astros will also benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight.
Bottom Line: Kremer has thrown well this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he isn’t throwing at a high level right now. He will struggle against a dominant Houston offense tonight.
Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.07 ERA suggests
Giolito is one of the most frustrating pitchers in the MLB at this point. He owns a 10-9 record with a 5.07 ERA through 27 starts. With that being said, he’s posted a 3.65 xFIP this season, which is the second-lowest of his career.
Giolito has seen positive regression in 3 of his last 5 starts. He’s also recorded 2.60 and 3.00 xFIPS in 2 of his last 4 starts. He’s been extremely inconsistent throughout the season, though.
Giolito gets a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers tonight. They’ve struggled against right-handed pitching throughout the season. They also own a .284 team wOBA over the last 14 days, and they’ve consistently struggled offensively this season.
Bottom Line: Giolito hasn’t been overly consistent in 2022, but he gets a great matchup. He should continue to find success against the Tigers in this game.
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Bryse Wilson: Pittsburgh Pirates
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:35 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.07 ERA suggests
Wilson has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. He enters this game with a 3-9 record with a 6.07 ERA. With that being said, he also owns a 4.52 xFIP through 22 games (18 starts).
Wilson hasn’t been throwing at a high level, but he has flashed some potential at times throughout the season. He’s posted 3.80, 2.59, and 3.66 xFIPs in 3 of his last 5 starts. He comes with plenty of risks on any given day, though.
Wilson gets a good matchup against the Chicago Cubs. They’ve been struggling offensively, posting a .283 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Wilson isn’t a good pitcher, but he is due for positive regression. He gets a solid matchup tonight, and this is a game that he could find some success in.