Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have long been considered the gold standard for NFL quarterbacks, and their teams will square off in Week 3. Brady has won three of their four head-to-head meetings, with Rodgers’ lone win coming in 2014. However, Rodgers has taken home the last two MVP awards, giving him one more than Brady.
For the first time in a long time, both teams have major question marks this season. Brady has to answer plenty of questions pertaining to his offseason, and his receiving corps could be decimated in Week 3. Meanwhile, Rodgers lost Davante Adams in the offseason, and he has to prove he can be the same player without his star pass-catcher.
Which quarterback can lead his team to victory in this matchup? Let’s dive into the Packers vs. Buccaneers predictions and best bets.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | O 41.5 (-110) |
| @ Buccaneers | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | U 41.5 (-110) |
Odds via Betway Sportsbook as of 1 p.m. ET on Sept. 21
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
- TV: FOX
Packers vs. Buccaneers Trends
- The Buccaneers are 2-0 this season (2-0 against the spread).
- The Packers are 1-1 this season (1-1 against the spread).
- The Buccaneers were 9-8 against the spread last season.
- The Packers were 12-5 against the spread last season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 26-18 against the spread as an underdog.
- Tom Brady is 128-81 against the spread in non-divisional games.
- The Buccaneers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as home favorites.
- The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings against a team with a top 10 defense.
- As of Wednesday, DraftKings reports that 41% of the bets and 55% of the handle are on the Packers.
- For the total, 32% of the bets and 55% of the handle are on the under.
Can The Buccaneers Overcome Absences?
Brady put together a phenomenal season at 44 years old. He led the NFL in most passing statistics, including completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns. He thrived behind an excellent offensive line while leaning on one of the most talented groups off pass-catchers in the league.
What a difference a year makes.
The offensive line has been devasted by injuries. They currently have three players on Injured Reserve, and Donovan Smith is also questionable. The Bucs have gone from first in adjusted sack rate allowed in 2021-22 to just sixth this season, and that number would be worse if not for Brady. He’s gotten the ball out extremely quickly, with only Cooper Rush averaging less time per throw.
Things aren’t much better in the receiver room. Mike Evans will serve a one-game suspension in Week 3, while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones both missed last week’s game with injuries. Brady’s long-time safety blanket Rob Gronkowski also retired during the offseason, leaving the team in dire straits in terms of pass-catchers.
There’s a chance that Godwin or Jones can return to the lineup this week, but it’s possible that this unit just won’t be as good this season. That could be a problem against a Packers’ defense that is essentially at full strength.
Who Will Help Out Aaron Rodgers?
While injuries and suspensions have thinned out the Bucs’ receiver room, the Packers did it voluntarily. They chose to trade Adams to the Raiders this offseason, and they didn’t do much to try to replace him. They brought in the perennially disappointing Sammy Watkins as a free agent, and they once again chose to eschew drafting a receiver with either of their two first-round picks.
Rodgers is capable of pulling rabbits out of his hat, but this is easily his worst group of pass-catchers of his career. Allan Lazard is the team’s No. 1 option, while Watkins, Randall Cobb, and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs also factor into the equation.
However, the Packers do employ arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league at running back. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are arguably the team’s two best skill-position players, and the Packers have done a good job of getting them both involved early in the year. Dillon is the better between-the-tackles grinder, while Jones is a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Expect both players to be busy vs. the Buccaneers, who currently rank 15th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Predictions
My initial lean in this game was towards the Buccaneers, who have a clear edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers have struggled in particular against the run, so Leonard Fournette could have a big game.
However, the injury factor is simply too big to ignore in Tampa. The Buccaneers have arguably the most depth at wide receiver in the entire league, but they have been pushed to the limit early in the year. If they don’t have Godwin and Evans in this contest, they’re going to struggle to gain yards through the air against Jaire Alexander and company.
Kenny Clark, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary should also test the Buccaneers’ decimated offensive line. Smith and Gary each have 2.0 sacks to start the year, while Clark is capable of generating pressure up the middle.
Finally, how often do we get to target Aaron Rodgers as an underdog? Even with an untested group of pass-catchers, I’m expecting Rodgers to figure out how to make it work before the end of the year. The thought of getting him as a dog is too tempting to pass up.
Pick: Packers +1.5 | -110 at Betway Sportsbook
