College football features a Week 3 Mountain West Conference showdown between Air Force and Wyoming on Friday night. Air Force is coming off a 41-10 demolition of Colorado last week, bringing them to 2-0 for the year. The Falcons have the potential to be favored in every single regular season contest this year, so they have the potential for a special year.
Meanwhile, Wyoming is currently sitting at 2-1 following a victory over Northern Colorado. However, their previous two games have been unimpressive: A 32-point loss to Illinois and a double-overtime win vs. Tulsa. This will be Wyoming’s toughest test so far, and they’re listed as 15-point home underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into the Air Force vs. Wyoming predictions and best bets for this Friday night contest.
Air Force vs. Wyoming Predictions
For my Air Force vs. Wyoming predictions, I’ll be placing these wagers at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Air Force vs. Wyoming Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming | +16.5 | +570 | O 49.5 (-110) |
| @ Air Force | -16.5 | -850 | U 49.5 (-110) |
Odds via Betway as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Sep. 13
Game Info
- Date: Friday, Sept. 16
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium (Laramie, WY)
- TV: CBSSN
Air Force vs. Wyoming Predictions Trends
- Air Force is 2-0 this season (1-0 against the spread).
- Wyoming is 2-1 this season (1-1 against the spread).
- Air Force was 8-4 against the spread last year.
- Wyoming was 5-6-1 against the spread last year.
- Road favorites of at least two touchdowns are 48-23-1 against the spread in games with a total of fewer than 50 points since 2015-16.
- Air Force is 5-2 against the spread as a favorite of greater than a touchdown since 2020-21.
- Wyoming is 15-10 against the spread as a home underdog under head coach Craig Bohl.
- As of Tuesday, DraftKings reports that 64% of the spread bets and 37% of the handle are on Air Force.
- For the total, 44% of the bets and 81% of the handle are on the Under.
More Like Ground Force, Am I Right?
Air Force relies on the triple-option on offense, and they have been successful to a staggering degree of late. They’ve averaged an absurd 508.5 rushing yards per game through their first two contests, and they averaged 328 rushing yards per game last year. If they have their way, they’ll throw the ball less than 10 times, control the time of possession, and simply grind your defense into oblivion.
𝐁𝐑𝐀𝐃 𝐑𝐎𝐁𝐄𝐑𝐓𝐒
3⃣rd touchdown of the day! pic.twitter.com/UVuyANHtO3
— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) September 10, 2022
When defenses do load up to stop the run, quarterback Hazziq Daniels is able to take advantage. He’s completed just four of 11 passes this season, but he’s accumulated 117 yards and a touchdown. That’s not a fluke: Air Force led all of college football with an average of 22.6 yards per completion last year as well. Daniels isn’t going to beat teams with his arm, but if you sell out to stop the run completely, he can take advantage with chunk plays.
Defensively, Air Force has also impressed this season. They’ve limited their first two opponents to just 283.5 yards per game, albeit against weak competition in Northern Iowa and Colorado. However, Colorado is a Power Five opponent, and Wyoming is not much better. Air Force was able to secure a 10-point home victory over Wyoming last year, and this year’s team is off to a much more impressive start.
How Quickly Can Wyoming Rebuild?
Head coach Craig Bohl has a big job on his hands this season. His team was absolutely gutted by the transfer portal in the off-season. Quarterbacks Levi Williams and Sean Chambers are both gone. Leading receiver Isaiah Neyor is gone. Nine defenders and one offensive lineman are gone. That doesn’t even include the seniors that graduated, so the team has experienced a massive rollover compared to last year’s squad.
That’s an issue because last year’s squad wasn’t all that good to begin with. They went just 7-6, including 2-6 in conference play.
The team did manage to secure a win over Tulsa as 6.5-point underdogs, but they were outgained 521-399 in that contest. Overall, Wyoming has been outgained by an average of nearly 80 yards per game, and that number would be worse if not for a beatdown victory over a weak Northern Colorado Bears squad last week.
Week 2 Performance
RB Titus Swen – Wyoming
• 76 Rushing yards 3 TDs
• 1 Rec 4 yards pic.twitter.com/pYjGHnlRT0— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 12, 2022
Ultimately, it’s hard to get excited about anything on the Cowboys’ roster. They have rushed the ball relatively well – Titus Swen and quarterback Andrew Peasley have both averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry – but they still rank just 71st in rushing yards per game. Peasley has struggled as a passer, averaging 5.3 adjusted yards per attempt with two touchdowns and one interception. The Cowboys rank just 89th out of 131 FBS teams in points per game and 88th in points per game allowed.
Wyoming is going to need some new players to step up, but if history is any indication, they’ll be playing elsewhere next year.
Air Force vs. Wyoming Predictions
While I spent the last few paragraphs dunking on Wyoming, I do think they still have some pieces. The offensive line is solid, and they should continue to generate some lanes in the rushing game.
They also shouldn’t be caught off guard by Air Force. They play them every year as a conference opponent, so they’re well-versed in the triple-option. Knowing about it and stopping it are two different things, but Wyoming should at least have an idea of what to do.
With that in mind, I think this line is too high. Wyoming will have the benefit of home field advantage, and they’ve had success against Air Force in the past. Their last loss against Air Force of more than 14 points was all the way back in 2008. This year’s Air Force squad might be a bit better than usual, but they haven’t really been tested yet. I think this game stays with two scores.
Pick: Wyoming +16.5 | -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook