The NFL season is here, which means it’s a great time to dive into some of the selections available across the sportsbook industry. You can bet on sides and totals, but player prop bets have been gaining popularity over the past few years. That includes anytime touchdown scorer bets.
Below, we’ll run through our anytime touchdown scorer predictions and best bets, then outline a strategy guide to help you become a profitable bettor when it comes to anytime TD scorer props.
Best NFL Prop Sites in Ohio
Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Week 12 Main Slate
Here’s a quick rundown of some of our favorite anytime touchdown markets.
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Travis Kelce Higher Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving Touchdowns (1.15x)
While we admittedly don’t love the multiplier here, we do love the matchup and the narrative.
First, the matchup: The Carolina Panthers have given up seven touchdown passes to opposing tight ends, the most in the league. They’ve also given up 53 catches for 608 yards, both near the middle of the pack.
But these numbers kind of pop out a little bit more when you take the following into consideration: One, they’ve faced the second-most rush attempts in the league and seventh fewest passes, and two, the quality of tight ends they’ve faced has been middling at best. Brock Bowers was faced early in the year, and the Panthers actually held him to a 3-41-0 line. But a steady string of second raters – you know, like Adam Trautman and Cole Kmet – did fine enough.
Point being, outside of Bowers, they haven’t faced a tight end like Travis Kelce.
And Kelce dudded last week in the team’s first loss of the season, after a three-week run that resulted in an eye-popping 32-254-2 line.
This week, the Chiefs travel to Carolina, and while we’re not going to go so far as to call this a “trap” game, we’re sure Andy Reid will have his troops ready for battle after the loss to the Bills.
There is simply no reason to think Kelce won’t be targeted in the end zone. Literally everything lines up for him to score.
Where to Play: Travis Kelce Higher Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving Touchdowns | 1.15x at Underdog
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Week 12 Main Slate content linked below.
- Week 12: Main Slate Content Hub
- Week 12: Main Slate First TD Props
- Week 12: Main Slate Last TD Props
Josh Downs Higher Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving Touchdowns (1.79x)
The Super Bowl favorite(!) Detroit Lions head to Indianapolis this Sunday to face off against a potentially resurgent Colts team. This one has all the makings of a track meet, with the total set at 50.5.
Also, the Colts – at 5-6 – are in the thick of the Wild Card chase.
And Anthony Richardson looked downright awesome last week, as the Colts deployed what basically amounts to a new offensive scheme. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Colts ran a run-pass option (RPO) on basically every single play, giving Richardson all the choices, all the time. It consistently froze the Jets’ defense, and Richardson completed a season-high 20 passes for 272 yards and a score, adding another 32 yards and two scores on the ground.
And while the Lions ain’t the Jets, an unleashed Richardson is going to give defenses headaches.
Last week, one of those headaches was Josh Downs, who went 5-84-1.
This week, Downs – who runs nearly 75% of his routes from the slot – will find some friendly competition, as the Lions, per Razzball, are giving up 17 fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
With fireworks expected in Detroit on Sunday, Downs for a touchdown feels like something that should be much closer to 1x instead of nearly double that.
Where to Play: Josh Downs Higher Than 0.5 Rush + Receiving Touchdowns | 1.79x at Underdog
Anytime TD Scorer: Overview & Guide
In this section, I’ll dive into everything you need to know about touchdown scoring props. We’ll touch on exactly what they cover and a few pieces of basic strategy to help you with your selections.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Meaning
The title is pretty self-explanatory, but anytime touchdown props refer to betting on a specific player to score a touchdown during any point of the game. These props are primarily focused on offensive players, but they can refer to special teamers and defenders as well. That said, I wouldn’t spend your time on those. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are more or less random, so trying to predict when they’re going to happen is a fool’s errand.
However, predicting rushing and receiving touchdowns is a bit more manageable. Most of the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are expected to see the field will get an anytime TD scorer prop posted to the various sportsbooks. The top players – aka the players who are expected to score most often – will often be available at less than even money. However, the players who don’t score regularly are often available at big plus-money payouts.
That makes betting on anytime touchdown scorers a two-pronged approach. You bet on guys like Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, and they will often win you that bet. However, the payout will be small, and the weeks where they don’t score can do more damage to your bankroll.
Betting on someone like the team’s No. 4 receiver works in the opposite way. You’re going to lose those anytime TD scorer bets far more often, but the losses will be smaller. You’ll also be rewarded with a far greater payout when they score.
Both strategies have merit, and they can be combined on a weekly basis.
Do Passing Touchdowns Count For Anytime Touchdown Scorer?
The answer is no. Anytime touchdown scorer props refer to the player who physically scores the touchdown. That can be a runner carrying the ball across the goal line or a player catching the ball in the end zone. That means that on passing touchdowns, the receiver is credited with the score.
However, that doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on quarterbacks in this market. Quarterbacks are typically priced pretty fairly in this market, but they score more rushing touchdowns than you might imagine. In fact, two of the four most profitable anytime TD scorers last season were actually quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill (+13 units) and Zach Wilson (+12 units). Tannehill rushed for a touchdown in seven separate games last season, while Wilson did it in four of his 13 games. Their prices varied on a week-to-week basis – they were typically between +350 and +550 to score – but it’s pretty clear that they were underpriced all year.
If you’re looking to bet on passing touchdowns, you can do that too. They’re available in their own separate prop category.
2+ Touchdowns Bet Meaning
If betting on a player to score once isn’t enough to rev your engine, you can also bet on a player to score multiple touchdowns. These bets work the same as the anytime touchdown scorer props, but you need the chosen player to score at least two times. They can score the touchdowns in different ways – rushing, receiving, or on special teams – but they’re going to need to get the ball into the end zone twice.
Like the anytime TD scorer props, these are geared toward the star players. Someone like Jonathan Taylor might be +300 to score at least two touchdowns – something he did five times last season – but teammate Parris Campbell might be +2000.
No Touchdown Scorer Bets
These bets hit rarely, but they offer a big payday. These bets only win where there are no touchdowns scored in a given game.
There were 272 games played during the 2021-22 NFL regular season, and only two of them went scoreless. Interestingly enough, both scoreless games featured one of the best offensive teams in the NFL: The Saints and Bucs didn’t score a touchdown on December 19th, while the Bills and Jaguars failed to score a touchdown on November 7th.
Two out of 272 is a minuscule number. It works out to 0.735%, which puts the true odds at greater than +100000. There may be times when that bet is worth considering, but I wouldn’t blame you if you ignored them altogether.
Anytime TD Scorer: Strategy Tips
There’s no magic bullet when it comes to betting anytime touchdown scorer props. Football is still a volatile sport, but there are things you can do to improve your win rate.
Pay Attention To Injuries
This is the biggest piece of advice that I can give to any bettor in any sport. Injuries create uncertainty, and uncertainty often leads to value.
For anytime touchdown scorer props, injuries can create situations where backup players are going to see more playing time. The most obvious example is a backup running back moving into a starting role, but it works with receivers as well.
Occasionally, you can time these injuries with the sportsbook. If you act quickly, you can occasionally get prop bets in before the sportsbooks have the opportunity to adjust their lines. If you can do that, it’s one of the easiest ways to get closing line value.
You can also act before the news becomes official. If you bet on the backup running back while the starting running back is questionable, you’ll ultimately get a ton of value if the starter is ruled out. Even if he isn’t, you’ll probably still have a pretty fair value on the backup player.
Where To Place Anytime TD Props
The following sportsbooks have more than enough options to satisfy your TD prop needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to Anytime TD props.
On top of that, our team spent the time to find the best available bonus offers at each listed sportsbook. If you are new to any of these betting apps, be sure to use our exclusive links and promo codes to claim your free bets:
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Top Sportsbooks For Anytime TD Props
- Fliff (available in 40+ states)
- Bet365 (click here for our full review)
- DraftKings Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- FanDuel Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- Caesars Sportsbook (click here for our full review)
- BetMGM (click here for our full review)
- BetRivers (click here for our full review)
Check out some of the Props.com library of betting guides linked below: