The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Aug. 24
Matt Manning: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers | 1:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.81 ERA indicates
Manning has thrown well through limited starts this season. He owns an 0-1 record with a 2.81 ERA through 6 starts. His 4.49 xFIP suggests he isn’t throwing nearly that well, though.
Manning has posted an xFIP over 4.00 in 4 of his 6 starts this season. He posted a 6.88 xFIP against the Minnesota Twins, which is his worst of the season. His best was a 1.12 xFIP in only 2 innings against the Kansas City Royals.
Manning gets a tough matchup against the San Francisco Giants. They have been hitting well, ranking ninth in the MLB in team wOBA (.312) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Manning is due for quite a bit of regression, and he gets a tough matchup. I’m expecting San Francisco to find some success against him today.
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Lucas Giolito: Baltimore Orioles
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.34 ERA suggests
Giolito has consistently struggled throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 9-7 record with a 5.34 ERA through 22 starts. He owns a 3.61 xFIP, though, and he’s been extremely unlucky this season.
Giolito has struggled in his last 2 starts. He has given up 11 earned runs over 10 innings against the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers. He posted 1.76 and 2.59 xFIPs in those games, though. It’s only a matter of time before he starts to find more success.
Giolito gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who have been an average offense in recent weeks. He’ll be throwing a hitter-friendly stadium, though, which is a bit of a concern.
Bottom Line: Giolito has been due for positive regression for quite some time, and it’s difficult to continue to project him for it. With that being said, his advanced metrics are elite in his last couple of games, so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt again.
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Martin Perez: Texas Rangers
Matchup: Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies | 3:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.80 ERA suggests
Perez has enjoyed an outstanding season for the Texas Rangers thus far. He’s posted a 9-4 record with a 2.80 ERA through 24 starts. He also owns a solid 3.40 xFIP, which is a bit below where his ERA stands.
Perez has struggled a bit in recent starts. He’s posted 3.99, 5.01, and 5.88 xFIPs over his last 3 starts. His ERA sat above his xFIP in only one of those games.
The key to this possible regression is the matchup. Perez will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Coors. There won’t be many strikeouts in this game, and the Rockies have the ability to get to any pitcher in the MLB at home.
Bottom Line: Perez is throwing extremely well this season, but he isn’t throwing as well as his numbers suggest. He could struggle to find success in this matchup.