Each week, Props.com provides an updated breakdown of the elite teams’ odds for making this season’s College Football Playoff, with a few timely caveats: until a few more of the remaining 17 undefeated teams taste defeat, we won’t be surveying the chances of any one-loss powerhouse (sorry, Ohio State, Florida, and Texas A&M fans).
For that matter, some of those undefeated Top 25 squads—yes, we’re looking at you, Michigan State—aren’t ready for prime time just yet. Similarly, while No. 13 BYU and No. 16 Coastal Carolina also sport perfect records, neither squad has a reasonable path to the national semifinals given the schools’ lack of Power 5 affiliation.
One thing we know for sure heading into Week 5: one of the below teams won’t be on this list come Week 6. That’s because No. 7 Cincinnati and No. 9 Notre Dame meet Saturday in a de facto elimination game for the Playoff.
The odds, courtesy of DraftKings, have been updated as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 21.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current Record: 4-0
This Week’s AP Ranking: 1
College Football Playoff Odds: Yes -700/No +425
— Alabama’s 17-game winning streak has yet to reach the fame of the program’s hallowed run of 28 consecutive victories from 1978-80. However, it’s still difficult to envision an imminent loss for the Crimson Tide, despite having four Top 25 schools left on the schedule. If Nick Saban’s squad cruises through the regular season unbeaten, it will be a cinch to return to the CFP. That probably would be the case even with a loss in the SEC title game (assuming that loss is to No. 2-ranked Georgia).
— Ole Miss arrives in Tuscaloosa this weekend with the Heisman Trophy front-runner (QB Matt Corral) and its highest national ranking since the Hugh Freeze days. And yet, Alabama remains an overwhelming 14.5-point favorite, per BetPrep.com.
— Side note: Saturday’s Over/Under of 79.5 points may hold greater betting intrigue. Head coach/offensive guru Lane Kiffin, Corral, and the Rebels offense wreaked havoc on the Crimson Tide defense last year, scoring 48 points and accounting for 647 scrimmage yards. Of course, Alabama notched 63 points and 723 total yards in the same game.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current Record: 4-0
This Week’s AP Ranking: 2
College Football Playoff Odds: Yes -600/No +390
— The meaty portion of Georgia’s schedule starts now, with the Dawgs hosting No. 8 Arkansas on Saturday. After that, it’ll be No. 22 Auburn (road), Kentucky (home), and No. 10 Florida (Oct. 30) over a four-week period.
It’s a daunting slate on paper. However, similar to how the betting community views Alabama during supposed “big” games, BetPrep lists UGA as an 18.5-point favorite vs. Arkansas.
— Georgia boasts the nation’s top-ranked scoring defense (allowing 5.8 points per game) and total defense (giving up 181.8 yards per contest). Also, the Dawgs’ offense has held up its end over the past three weeks, averaging 53 points per contest.
— In the history of the College Football Playoff, the SEC champion has received an invite every time. This bodes well for UGA, despite not having Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M on the schedule. The regular season essentially boils down to the next four weeks and a presumptive berth in the SEC championship game (against the Tide).
Oklahoma Sooners
Current Record: 4-0
This Week’s AP Ranking: 6
College Football Playoff Odds: Yes -130/No +100
— In addition to hoping their team finally starts playing up to its alleged potential, Oklahoma fans also should be cheering for No. 7 Cincinnati to upend No. 9 Notre Dame on Saturday. Here’s why:
First, as a presumptive undefeated Big 12 champion, the Sooners likely would get the nod from the CFP selection committee over the unbeaten (and non-Power 5) Bearcats. However …
Given their prestige, superior schedule strength, and broad television appeal, the undefeated Fighting Irish would be an easy choice over a 13-0 Oklahoma squad. That’s a byproduct of the Big 12’s lack of other high-end teams.
Oregon Ducks
Current Record: 4-0
This Week’s AP Ranking: 3
College Football Playoff Odds: Yes +180/No -235
— Despite what the odds tell you, Oregon’s path to the College Football Playoff is straight: Win out, and the Ducks will finish no lower than third in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Oregon already has a super-sized road upset of Ohio State in its pocket. That means the Ducks can’t be severely penalized for playing in a marginal conference schedule. To paraphrase the late Al Davis: Just win, baby … and the Cotton Bowl will come calling!
— Would anyone want to be a Pac-12 referee for Oregon’s four remaining road outings—at Stanford (Saturday), at No. 20 UCLA (Oct. 23), at Washington (Nov. 6), and at Utah (Nov. 20)—knowing the Ducks are the conference’s lone playoff hope? That’s a lot of pressure, given how still-winless Arizona trailed Oregon by just five points in the fourth quarter last weekend in Eugene.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Current Record: 4-0
This Week’s AP Ranking: 4
College Football Playoff Odds: Yes +425/No -700
— None of the four Big Ten East unbeatens have encountered Ohio State yet. As such, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Maryland can’t make any reality-based assumptions of how the season will shake out. Newsflash: Ohio State has won four consecutive Big Ten titles. And if they keep winning, oddsmakers will favor the one-loss Buckeyes over any unbeaten conference foe, including in the league title game.
— The above rationalization rings especially true for Penn State, since the Nittany Lions still have unbeaten Iowa on their docket, while Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State don’t have to face the Hawkeyes.
— There’s an upshot to Penn State drawing Iowa as a crossover opponent: It gives the Nittany Lions some CFP flexibility on two fronts:
Path #1: Run the table during October/November, beat Iowa again in December in the conference championship game, then enjoy a No. 1 or 2 seed in the semifinals.
Path #2: If it does suffer a regular-season defeat (preferably against Iowa), Penn State could then subsequently pray the Hawkeyes carry an undefeated record and top-3 national ranking into the Big Ten title game. Then if they get revenge on Iowa, the Lions likely would earn a major strength-of-schedule boost for toppling an elite-level opponent. Of course, a slew of undefeated teams would have to lose for this to be a viable path.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Current Record: 4-0
This Week’s AP Ranking: 5
College Football Playoff Odds: Yes +700/No -1400
— Iowa could be viewed as the Oregon of the Big Ten in one regard: The Hawkeyes don’t need to worry about the strength-of-schedule quotient, even though just one ranked team (Penn State) lies ahead on the schedule.
Keep winning every weekend, and the CFP committee would be powerless to deny Iowa—as an undefeated Big Ten champion—a spot in the semifinals.