The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, July 29
Lance Lynn: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Oakland A’s at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.43 ERA indicates
Lynn has struggled quite a bit this season. He owns a 1-3 record with a 6.43 ERA through 8 starts. He’s also recorded a dominant 3.83 xFIP through 42 starts this season.
Lynn struggled for a few starts in a row, but he’s posted 2.36 and 3.09 xFIPs in his last two starts now. He shut out the Cleveland Guardians in his last game, but he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings against the Minnesota Twins in the start before that.
Lynn gets a plus matchup against the Oakland A’s tonight. They’ve been playing better in recent weeks, but they aren’t an offense that you’re going to shy away from.
Bottom Line: Lynn has been an extremely unlucky pitcher early in his 2022 season, but he’s throwing well once again. This is the perfect matchup to find some positive regression.
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants | 10:15 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.26 ERA suggests
Cobb boasts some of the best advanced metrics in the MLB, but it hasn’t mattered thus far. He owns a 3-4 record with a 4.26 ERA through 15 starts. He’s also posted an elite 2.98 xFIP this season.
Cobb has either shut out his opponents or his ERA sat above his xFIP this season. There are very few cases of anything in between those two options. He’s posted a 3.50 or better xFIP in 5 of his last 6 starts, and it’s only a matter of time before the results follow.
Cobb gets a solid matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who are selling basically any veteran on their team at this point. They could throw out a terrible lineup tonight, giving another edge to Cobb.
Bottom Line: Cobb’s advanced metrics are elite, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts to see positive regression. This is a good matchup for that, and I expect him to find success tonight.
Julio Urias: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.72 ERA suggests
Tyler Anderson was in the same spot last night, and he threw an absolute gem. Urias has found similar success, posting a 9-6 record with a 2.72 ERA through 19 starts. He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, recording a 3.85 xFIP.
One key here to note about Urias is that he’s consistently beat regression throughout his career. There are pitchers that can throw better than their numbers suggest for a variety of reasons, and Urias could be that player.
He gets a terrible matchup against the Colorado Rockies in Coors tonight. His pitch mix isn’t designed to perform well in Coors, which is an issue, and he’s struggled a bit in Colorado this season.
Bottom Line: Urias could be one of few pitchers that can consistently avoid regression. With that being said, he’s in a terrible matchup in Coors, and he could struggle for the third time here tonight.
