The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, July 28
Alex Wood: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants | 9:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.21 ERA indicates
Wood has struggled a bit in the 2022 season. He owns a 6-8 record with a 4.21 ERA through 19 starts. He also boasts a dominant 3.13 xFIP this season.
Another part of this is that Wood has been elite at home. His 3.95 ERA leaves plenty to be desired, but he also boasts a 2.70 xFIP through 41 home innings. He’s posted a 2.50 xFIP or better in each of his last 4 home starts.
Wood gets an interesting matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. The Cubs have been playing well recently, but they’ve been a better offense at home throughout the season. This isn’t the worst matchup, although it also isn’t the best.
Bottom Line: Wood’s throwing at an elite level, specifically in San Francisco. It’s a reasonable matchup against Chicago, and he should find plenty of success tonight.
Jose Urena: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.13 ERA suggests
Urena’s performed extremely well in limited innings this season. He owns a 1-2 record with a 3.13 ERA through 8 games (4 starts). He’s due for plenty of regression, though, as he also owns a 4.97 xFIP.
Urena saw some of that regression in his last game, giving up 5 earned runs over 5.1 innings. His ERA sat at 8.44, which was well above his 3.49 xFIP. He’s posted an ERA lower than his xFIP in 6 of his 8 games this season, though.
Urena gets a terrible matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Coors tonight. The Dodgers rank third in the MLB in team wOBA over the last 14 days, and they’ll benefit from this road series.
Bottom Line: Urena’s thrown well early in his 2022 season, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked (similar to his last game). That could be the case in a terrible matchup against Los Angeles tonight.
Tyler Anderson: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.79 ERA suggests
Anderson has been throwing at an extremely high level for Los Angeles this season, posting a 10-1 record through 18 games (16 starts). He owns a dominant 2.79 ERA, although his xFIP sits at 3.96.
Anderson’s seen mixed results throughout the season, specifically in terms of his advanced metrics. He’s posted 4.10 and 4.28 xFIPs in his last two games, although he’s recorded 12 shutout innings in those contests.
The left-hander gets a terrible matchup against the Colorado Rockies in Coors tonight, though. They lead the MLB in OPS at home against left-handed pitching this season.
Bottom Line: Anderson is a solid pitcher, but he isn’t as good as he’s thrown this season. He gets a terrible matchup in Coors, and he should find some regression tonight.