The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, July 27
Cole Irvin: Oakland Athletics
Matchup: Houston Astros at Oakland A’s | 3:37 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.08 ERA indicates
Irvin has looked outstanding through 17 starts this season. He boasts a 5-7 record with a 3.08 ERA. With that being said, he also owns a 4.30 xFIP, and it’s clear he’s due for some regression.
This is actually an interesting matchup because Irvin has faced off against Houston twice this season. He’s gotten the better of them both times, allowing only 2 earned runs over 11.2 innings. The left-hander posted 4.27 and 6.10 xFIPs in those games, though.
The Astros have been struggling offensively in recent games, but they boast an offense that can get to any pitcher in the MLB. Irvin will benefit from throwing in Oakland’s pitcher-friendly stadium tonight, which is an edge for him.
Bottom Line: Irvin has shut down the Astros twice this season, but the advanced metrics suggest he got lucky in both games. I favor their offense tonight, even if they are struggling. I’m expecting them to get some revenge against Irvin.
Chris Archer: Minnesota Twins
Matchup: Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers | 2:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.41 ERA suggests
Archer’s quietly thrown well through 16 starts for Minnesota this season. He’s recorded a 2-4 record with a 3.41 ERA, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. He also owns a 4.85 xFIP, which suggests he isn’t actually throwing well in 2022.
Oddly enough, Archer’s been boom or bust this season. He’s posted xFIPs under 3.00 in 2 of his last 3 starts. With that being said, he also posted an 8.11 xFIP in his third game. He’s been extremely inconsistent, but he’s due for regression overall regardless of recent success.
Archer will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been playing well. They feature one of the higher upside offenses in the MLB, and I’m expecting them to find success at home tonight.
Bottom Line: Archer has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the MLB in terms of advanced metrics this season. He’s due for regression, and Milwaukee boasts an outstanding offense in their hitter-friendly stadium.
Nathan Eovaldi: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.30 ERA suggests
Eovaldi has struggled through 14 starts this season, but he boasts the advanced metrics of an elite pitcher. Overall, he enters this game with a 4-3 record, a 4.30 ERA, and a 3.18 xFIP.
Eovaldi is coming off of a bad game, although he didn’t throw quite as bad as his baseline stats suggest. He recorded a 3.50 or better xFIP in 5 consecutive starts before that, including a 1.83 xFIP against the Seattle Mariners.
Eovaldi gets a tough matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight. They’ve been playing at a high level in recent games, and they consistently put the ball in play. It’s a tough situation to get a gauge on Eovaldi.
Bottom Line: The right-hander is throwing at an extremely high level, although his baseline metrics don’t suggest that. He gets a tougher matchup tonight, which adds volatility, but Eovaldi is due for plenty of positive regression as the season continues.