The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, July 26
Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.36 ERA indicates
Kopech has thrown extremely well through 17 starts this season. He boasts a 3-6 record with a 3.36 ERA. He’s also recorded a 5.04 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for quite a bit of regression before the season ends.
Kopech has been even worse in recent games as well. He saw some regression in a few of his games, but he’s now given up only 4 earned runs in his last 2 starts while posting 7.40 and 5.82 xFIPs.
Kopech gets a terrible matchup against the Colorado Rockies tonight. They’ve been playing at a high level in recent games, and this game will take place in Coors tonight. It’s a massive advantage to the bats.
Bottom Line: Kopech’s advanced metrics have looked terrible in recent games, even though he’s found some success. It’s only a matter of time before he gets destroyed early in a game. That could certainly be tonight.
German Marquez: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.47 ERA suggests
Marquez is in the exact opposite situation to Kopech. He’s posted a 6-7 record with a 5.47 ERA through 18 starts. His 4.05 xFIP suggests he’s throwing significantly better than his baseline metrics show, though.
Marquez is coming off of two solid starts where he finally started to see that positive regression. It’s important to note that he owns an outstanding 3.76 xFIP in Coors, which sits well below his 6.63 home ERA.
Marquez gets a tough matchup against the Chicago White Sox tonight. They’ve been an inconsistent offense throughout the season, but they’ve been heating up in recent games.
Bottom Line: This isn’t a great spot for Marquez, but he is due for positive regression. I prefer him to have the better game between Kopech and him, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Chicago finds some success tonight.
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.22 ERA suggests
Berrios’ struggled throughout the 2022 season. He’s recorded a 7-4 record with a 5.22 ERA through 19 starts. He also owns a 4.04 xFIP, though, and he’s throwing better than his baseline stats suggest.
Berrios is finally starting to see that positive regression, as his ERA’s sat below his xFIP in 3 of his last 4 starts. He’s also a better pitcher at home, which will work to his advantage tonight.
Berrios will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals. Similar to the White Sox, they’ve been an inconsistent offense throughout the season. They’ve also found plenty of success in recent games, adding risk to Berrios.
Bottom Line: The right-hander is essentially throwing as well as he was last season, but his baseline metrics don’t show that. This is a tougher matchup, so proceed with caution, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Berrios finds success at home tonight.
