The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, July 21
Pablo Lopez: Miami Marlins
Matchup: Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins | 1:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 24.3% strikeout rate indicates
Lopez has been throwing extremely well throughout the 2022 season. He boasts a 6-4 record with a 2.86 ERA and a 3.55 xFIP through 18 starts.
Lopez has recorded an 8.7 K/9 through 104 innings in 2022. His strikeout rate sits at 24.3%, which is his worst rate since 2019. He owns career-highs in swinging-strike (13.3%) and CSW (28.8%) rates, though.
Lopez gets an interesting matchup against the Texas Rangers today. They will whiff on his changeup, but they’re also featuring plenty of left-handed batters, which Lopez hasn’t been able to put away this season.
Bottom Line: Lopez is due for positive strikeout regression, and I think this is a fine matchup against the Texas Rangers. I don’t expect him to boast ridiculous strikeout numbers today, but he should find some success.
Tarik Skubal: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Oakland A’s | 3:37 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.11 ERA suggests
It’s a small slate, so there aren’t any pitchers with ridiculous numbers. It’s important to note that for Skubal here. He enters this game with a 6-8 record and a 4.11 ERA. He has also recorded a 3.28 xFIP through 18 starts.
Skubal had a tough stretch for a few games, but he’s gotten unlucky in his last two contests. He’s given up 6 earned runs over his last 12 innings, but he posted 2.68 and 3.01 xFIPs in those games. It’s encouraging to see him throwing well in his recent starts, and I’m expecting the All-Star Break to slightly help him get back on track.
Skubal gets a plus matchup against Oakland, who features one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season. The only major concern is that the A’s feature plenty of right-handed batters, which is what Skubal’s struggled with more this season.
Bottom Line: Although there are some concerns with the handedness of Oakland’s batters, I’m expecting Skubal to find plenty of success. He’s throwing at a higher level after a few rough starts, and this could be a dominant outing for him.
Jordan Montgomery: New York Yankees
Matchup: New York Yankees at Houston Astros | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 19.5% strikeout rate suggests
Montgomery has quietly thrown well this season, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.26 ERA. His ERA is backed by a solid 3.66 xFIP through 18 starts.
Montgomery only owns a 7.1 K/9, which is the lowest of his career. The left-hander has also posted a career-low 19.5% strikeout rate in 2022. He boasts a 13.5% swinging-strike rate to go along with a career-high 29.7% CSW rate this season.
The biggest concern with Montgomery is that he gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros. They feature one of the better offenses in the MLB, and they haven’t been striking out against left-handed pitching this season.
Bottom Line: I’m expecting some positive strikeout regression for Montgomery as the season progresses, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect it in this game. Houston is a tough offense against lefties, and Montgomery isn’t dominant enough to overlook this matchup.
