Friday features Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals, and we have four Heat vs Celtics props teed up for this matchup.
The Celtics were able to secure a massive road victory in Game 5, so they’ll have the opportunity to close out this series on Friday. They are widely expected to do so, and they’re currently listed as 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. However, the Heat have been underrated by the public all season, and they have a tendency to show up in big games. Do they have enough left in the tank to force a decisive Game 7?
Let’s dive into our top Heat vs Celtics props for Game 6, featuring two player props from both squads.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on May 27.
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Miami Heat Player Props
Center Bam Adebayo
The prop: 9.5 rebounds
The odds: Over +105/Under -140
The Heat are searching for answers at the moment, and unfortunately, they’re running out of options. They omitted Dewayne Dedmon from the rotation in Game 5, which left Adebayo to handle all of the center minutes. He was productive from a statistical standpoint, finishing with 18 points and 10 boards, but the Heat were outscored by -23 points with Adebayo on the floor. That was the worst mark on the squad.
Still, the Heat really don’t have any alternatives to Adebayo at this point. He should see another massive workload in Game 6, making the over on his rebounding prop very appealing. Adebayo averaged 10.1 rebounds per game during the regular season, and he’s grabbed 10 boards in back-to-back games.
Shooting Guard Jimmy Butler
The prop: 4.5 assists
The odds: Over +110/Under -150
Part of the reason for the Heat’s struggles recently have been the injuries to Butler and Kyle Lowry. Is it karma for the Heat releasing BS injury reports all season? I’m not saying that, but I’m also not not saying that.
Butler claims that his right knee is fine, and the Heat need to hope that’s the case. Lowry has given the team absolutely nothing over the past two games, so they’re going to need Butler to show up on the road in Game 6.
The good news is that Butler is a gamer. He has a tendency to show up when the team needs him most, and he should have plenty of opportunities to create plays on Friday. Butler finished with just four assists in his last outing, but NBA.com credited him with seven potential assists. He has the potential for a better performance in a must-win contest, so I’ll roll the dice on the over at better than even money.
Boston Celtics Player Props
Small Forward Jayson Tatum
The prop: 6.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
The over on Tatum’s rebound prop has become a staple of these writeups. The line never seems to budge, although the juice has been updated following a big performance in Game 5. The over has been available at plus-money for most of this series, but we’ll have to lay -115 on Friday.
I’m fine with paying the increased premium for Tatum in Game 6. He averaged 8.0 rebounds per game during the regular season, and he’s playing significantly more minutes during the playoffs. He had 12 boards in his last contest, and he’s ripped down at least eight boards in three of his past five games. Overall, Tatum has averaged 7.8 rebounds per game during this series, so I will gladly continue to fire on over 6.5.
Shooting Guard Jaylen Brown
The prop: 33.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Brown has been fantastic for the Celtics in this series, and he was instrumental in their massive Game 5 win. He scored 19 of his 25 points after halftime, and he shot 8-12 from the field and 3-5 from 3-point range in the second half.
However, Brown still managed to rack up just 30 PRA despite the hot shooting night. He’s almost certainly due for some shooting regression on Friday, particularly from 3-point range. While he might be able to grab a few additional rebounds and assists, this seems like a solid fade spot overall. Brown has now hit the under on 33.5 PRA in back-to-back games, and I like his chances of making it three in a row on Friday.