Heat Vs Celtics Props: Take Advantage Of Horford’s Low Number

The Celtics and Heat are tied at one game apiece as the Eastern Conference Finals heads to Boston. While hunting for the best Heat vs Celtics props for Game 3, we stumbled into a main theme: value over popularity.

What do we mean by that? The following Heat vs Celtics player props won’t necessarily come from standard categories such as points, rebounds, or the popular points-rebounds-assists prop. They won’t always feature marquee players, either. Instead, we found that NBA prop betting value often lies in the fringes, with Al Horford’s assist prop and Grant Williams’ rebound number. That’s especially the case for this portion of Eastern Conference finals prop bets.

With that, let’s dive into the best Heat vs Celtics props for Game 3.

Odds via DraftKings as of 11 a.m. ET on May 21.

Heat vs Celtics Player Props

Boston Celtics: F/C Al Horford

The prop: 2.5 assists
The odds: Over -145/Under +110

There’s heavy juice to the Over here, but that’s justified when you look at the big picture. Consider these stats:

• Horford averaged 3.4 assists per game in the regular season.
• Horford has gone Over 2.5 assists in eight straight.
• In his last eight games, Horford is averaging 38 minutes and 4.0 assists.

For those reasons, we are looking to lay the juice while taking Horford Over 2.5 assists. The veteran big man has been playing fantastic basketball in the last few weeks, and he’ll have the ball in his hands often while seeing a full complement of minutes.

In Game 3, there’s a good chance Horford can accumulate three-plus assists for the ninth straight time.

Miami Heat: G/F Tyler Herro

The prop: 1.5 made 3-pointers
The odds: Over -115/Under -115

When looking at Heat vs Celtics props on DraftKings, there were only a handful of choices when it came to 3-pointers (as of Saturday morning). Because of that, we ran to Caesars Sportsbook real quick to grab this prop.

At first blush, this may seem like an easy pick to the Over. Herro is a quality jump shooter who will get plenty of looks, right? Not exactly.

Herro has failed to go Over 1.5 made 3-pointers in five straight games. In that span, he’s only averaging 3.4 attempts from deep per contest. That doesn’t look great when considering Herro is only shooting 25 percent from downtown in the playoffs.

Another signal to the Under? Boston ranked first in 3-point defense this season, allowing opponents to shoot just 33.7 percent from behind the arc.

Look toward Herro Under 1.5 made 3-pointers at Caesars Sportsbook.

Boston Celtics: F Grant Williams

The prop: 3.5 rebounds
The odds: Over +110/Under -145

This isn’t the sexiest pick on the board, but it represents some of the best value among all the Heat vs Celtics props.

Williams has beaten this number with at least four rebounds in seven of his last nine games. And we are still getting plus-money to the Over?

The scrappy 6-foot-6 forward out of Tennessee is averaging 31.2 minutes and 4.1 rebounds in the postseason. If you recall, Horford returned from a one-game absence in Game 2, but Williams’ minutes were not disrupted (32).

This might be a case in which oddsmakers are slow to move the number. Williams averaged 3.6 rebounds in the regular season, so that’s where DraftKings posted his prop. If anything, the odds should probably be reversed with plus-money to the Under.

Let’s take the value and hammer the Over.

Miami Heat: SF Jimmy Butler

The prop: 0.5 blocks
The odds: Over -110/Under -125

We went deep into the prop analysis machine for this one. Here are our findings:

Butler has failed to record a block in 12 of his last 17 games. Interesting, let’s zoom out.

Including the postseason, Butler has played in 69 games this season. He only recorded a block in 27 of them. That means Under 0.5 blocks cashes at a 61 percent clip.

The implied probability of -125 odds is 55 percent. That means we have “plus-value” when selecting Under 0.5 blocks, and the recent trends point in that direction, as well.

Most Popular Heat vs Celtics Props

DraftKings reports the following as the most bet Heat vs Celtics player props for Game 3:

• Bam Adebayo Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
• Al Horford Over 10.5 assists + rebounds (-125)
• Jimmy Butler Over 26.5 points (-115)
• Marcus Smart Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
• Marcus Smart Over 0.5 blocks (+175)