Friday Best Bets: One NBA Side, Two NBA Props

Thursday’s Best Bets went 2-for-3, helping us to a 6-3 record in the last three days. You better believe we’ll take a 66 percent win rate!

We’ll look to close out a successful week with three Best Bets from Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. All three picks follow the theme of Dallas bouncing back after a poor shooting performance in Game 1.

You could say we have more belief in the Mavericks than Luka Doncic after a few brunch beers, but this trio of Best Bets holds strong value on the betting market.

Let’s dive into the Friday Best Bets analysis to find out why.

All odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on May 20.

Best Bets Track Record

Thursday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 88-87-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 26-28-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 24-34
NBA Props: 30-18
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Side: Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors

The bet: Dallas +6.5 (at Golden State)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on Props podcast page) cashed his play in the Best Bets series on Thursday. He correctly picked Boston +3.5 at Miami in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals, getting well ahead of the closing line of Boston +1.5. Not that it mattered, ultimately, as the Celtics rolled 127-102.

So what does Perrault have up his sleeve on Friday? Well, it’s more of the same. He’s subscribing to the zig-zag theory once again, taking Dallas +6.5 at Golden State in Game 2.

The Mavericks came out flat in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals. However, Perrault is expecting a bounce-back similar to the Celtics’ performance on Thursday.

The Warriors are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, and the 6.5-point spread is a good number for the underdog Mavericks.

Dallas shot just 11-for-48 on 3-pointers in Game 1, despite getting plenty of open looks. If the Mavs can knock down more of those looks, then they should keep this game close and ultimately cover the number.

You can find the best available line of Dallas +6.5 at BetMGM.

NBA Prop: G Jalen Brunson (Dallas Mavericks)

The prop: Over 18.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: -140
Where to bet: PointsBet USA
From: Jim Barnes via NBA Props Friday

We cashed with Under 18.5 on Brunson’s points in Game 1, but honestly, we got a little lucky. Brunson scored 14 points, but he was 6-for-16 from the field (including 0-for-5 on 3-pointers) with several open looks that didn’t go in. He easily could have scored 20-plus.

Brunson runs the Mavs’ offense when star Luka Doncic is on the bench, and he is often the second option when Doncic is on the floor. Brunson will continue to get opportunities, and surely more of his shots will go down in Game 2. (Also, if Doncic is getting over an illness, as has been rumored, Brunson could carry an even larger load.)

DraftKings’ customers appear to be of the mindset that Brunson will come up big in Game 2, as this prop opened at 18.5, with the juice shooting from Over -125 to Over -135. Then DK went to 19.5 today. But PointsBet USA still has Brunson Over 18.5 (-140), as of 3 p.m. ET. That’s worth a go.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: G/F Reggie Bullock (Dallas Mavericks)

The bet: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (at Golden State)
The odds: +114
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

Don’t look now, but the BetPrep Prop of the Day has cashed three in a row! Looking to make it four straight winners, BetPrep is taking Mavericks wing Reggie Bullock Over 2.5 made 3-pointers for Game 2 vs. the Warriors.

The rationale for this Best Bets play:

• Bullock has averaged nearly 40 minutes per game in 14 postseason contests.
• He has taken 116 total shots in the playoffs, with 100 from behind the arc.
• Bullock has made three-plus from deep in three straight against Golden State.

As a team, the Mavericks went 11-for-48 on 3-pointers in Game 1. Bullock was part of those struggles, going 3-for-10 from deep. However, he still cashed Over 2.5 made 3-pointers, and saw plenty of open looks along the way.

You can find Bullock Over 2.5 made 3-pointers with plus-money odds (+114) at FanDuel Sportsbook.