Friday Best Bets: One NBA Side, Two NBA Props

Thursday’s Best Bets went 2-for-3, getting us back to those winning ways. Sure, it took some good fortune to eke out a winning night, as Bam Adebayo narrowly cleared 7.5 rebounds and the Tampa Bay Lightning pulled out a 4-3 overtime victory.

Frankly, we were due for some positive movement after several bad beats to begin the week.

Let’s use that momentum to keep this Best Bets train moving into the weekend.

Best Bets Track Record

Thursday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 81-80-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 25-25-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 20-33
NBA Props: 28-16
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Side: Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies

The bet: Memphis +8 (at Golden State)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: BetRivers
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault, host of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast is starting to preheat the oven with a nice two-game winning streak. On Thursday, Perrault’s play in the Best Bets series (Lightning moneyline) ultimately prevailed in overtime.

For Friday, Perrault turns his attention back to the hardwood. He’s taking Memphis +8 at Golden State in Game 6 of this series. Simply put, Perrault believes this is way too many points for a Grizzlies team fighting with its back against the wall.

All-Star point guard Ja Morant will remain sidelined for Memphis, but the Grizzlies kept it close in Game 4 (101-98) and ran away with Game 5 (134-95) despite not having their best player.

Perrault also notes that Memphis is 40-22-1 ATS vs. the Western Conference this season. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in this series, and Perrault believes they can do it again on Friday.

You can find Memphis +8 at BetRivers Sportsbook.

NBA Prop: F/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies)

The prop: Over 17.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: -125
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach via Friday NBA Props

This was our best NBA prop of the night on Wednesday, and you better believe we aren’t afraid to fire it up once again.

Sportsbooks seem slow to adjust to changes in playing time (and usage) this postseason. That’s especially the case with Jackson, who’s seeing a heavier workload due to Ja Morant’s absence. Jackson’s numbers in the past two games with Morant out:

• Game 4: 21 points in 34 minutes (7-21 FG)
• Game 5: 21 points in 25 minutes (6-10 FG)

Mind you, Game 5 was a blowout, so Jackson would’ve seen more playing time and shots if the atmosphere was more competitive (as it should be in Game 6).

We said this on Wednesday, and it still rings true: Jackson has consistently stepped up in Morant’s absence this season. In 21 games without his All-Star point guard, Jackson averaged 18.5 points and a 28.1 percent usage rate. Compare that to 15.5 points per game and a 24.7 percent usage rate in 57 games with Morant on the floor.

As always, foul trouble is a concern for the Grizzlies’ big man, but Jackson has actually done a good job of keeping his hands to himself (for the most part) in this series. As a result, he’s averaging 30 minutes per game, more than enough time for him to fly past 17.5 points.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: G/F Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)

The bet: Over 5.5 rebounds (vs. Memphis)
The odds: -132
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day cashed on Thursday, as Bam Adebayo grabbed eight boards, just enough boards to go Over his 7.5 rebound prop.

For Friday, BetPrep is sticking with the rebounding theme, taking Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 boards in Game 6 against the Grizzlies.

Wiggins has grabbed seven-plus rebounds in seven of 10 playoff games, averaging 6.5 boards in that span. In those three misses, two were caused by fewer minutes in blowout situations. We are expecting a competitive atmosphere for this Game 6 battle in Golden State.

You can find Wiggins Over 5.5 rebounds (-134) at FanDuel Sportsbook.