Tuesday Best Bets: One NHL Total, Two NBA Props

Well that was a terrible start to the week, as our Best Bets bageled out at 0-for-3 Monday. After a rough go of it last week, we now know what it feels like to play defense against Warriors star/low-blow artist Draymond Green.

This Best Bets slump has us hovering just above .500 for the first time in a long time. No panic around here, though. We’ll catch fire soon enough. And there’s no reason why “soon” can’t be Tuesday night! Among the crew’s three Best Bets are a pair of Dallas Mavericks player props heading into their Game 5 matchup in Phoenix, as well as an NHL total from Game 5 of the Wild-Blues series.

As always, no guarantees. Well, except this one: Win, lose or draw, we’ll be back firing away with Best Bets again tomorrow!

With that, let’s dive into Tuesday’s trio of selections.

Best Bets Track Record

Monday: 0-3
Year-To-Date: 77-75-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 23-24-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-31
NBA Props: 27-14
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NHL Total: Minnesota Wild vs St Louis Blues

The bet: Wild-Blues Over 6.5
The odds: -105
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast is turning to the ice for his Best Bets recommendation on Tuesday. The Blues and Wild have provided a … well, wild and entertaining series to this point. Perrault expects that to continue with plenty of goals in Game 5.

The official play: Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues Over 6.5 goals. You can find this bet at -105 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here’s how this series has played out so far:

• Blues win 4-0 at Minnesota (Game 1)
• Wild win 6-2 at Minnesota (Game 2)
• Wild win 5-1 at St. Louis (Game 3)
• Blues win 5-2 at St. Louis (Game 4)

Perrault notes that scoring has picked up as this series has gone along, and he’s confident that will continue Tuesday in a pivotal Game 5. And with this expected to be a tight game, don’t discount the possibility of another empty-net goal pushing things Over the total (as happened in Game 4).

Remember, these were two of the NHL’s most prolific goal-scoring teams in the regular season (the Blues ranked third, the Wild fifth). And as noted in today’s NHL Playoffs Action Report. the Over is 9-3 in the last 12 battles between the Wild and Blues, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota.

NBA Prop: G Jalen Brunson (Dallas Mavericks)

The prop: Over 3.5 assists (at Phoenix)
The odds: +120
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via Tuesday NBA Props

Brunson, who will be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, has made himself a lot of money with his play in 2021-22. He was a vital part of the Mavs’ rotation during the regular campaign, and he’s been excellent during the postseason as well. Specifically, he played a huge role in the Mavericks’ victories over Phoenix in Games 3 and 4 that evened the series, averaging 23.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists.

For purposes of this exercise, let’s focus on that latter statistic: It’s a full notch above his assists prop for Tuesday’s Game 5. And we are getting plus-money to the Over? Seems like a gift, considering Brunson averaged 4.8 assists per contest in the regular season and has surpassed this prop number of in six of his 10 playoff contests.

It’s safe to say this is one of my favorite NBA props on the Tuesday slate. So we’ll happily grab Over 3.5/+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: G Spencer Dinwiddie (Dallas Mavericks)

The bet: Over 2.5 assists (at Phoenix)
The odds: -150
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day also comes from Dallas-Phoenix Game 5. And it’s yet another Dallas guard looking to clear what appears to be a low assist projected total. Yep, BetPrep has locked in Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists.

The rationale for BetPrep’s Best Bets selection:

• Dinwiddie has recorded three-plus assists in seven of 10 playoff games to date. That includes three of four games in this series against the Suns.
• Dinwiddie averaged 5.2 assists per game during the regular season.

Admittedly, that average was padded a bit when Dinwiddie was with the Wizards, for whom he had a higher assist rate before being dealt to Dallas. Still, Dinwiddie is averaging 3.9 assists in 23 games with the Mavericks. Heck, he can even miss that average by a bit tonight and still cash this prop, which can you can grab at -150 odds at BetMGM.