It’s a new week, which means we are off to a fresh start with our Best Bets series.
Even though last week didn’t go as planned, we still have our heads above water with an overall Best Bets record of 77-72-1. We are keen to point out that the NBA props have served as a welcomed life preserver, with a 27-13 mark to date. Props.com contributor Matt LaMarca will look to keep that going on Monday.
Throw in a patented total from The Bostonian vs The Book podcast (yes, another Under) along with BetPrep’s Prop of the Day, and you have a wagering trifecta for Monday’s NBA playoff slate.
With that, let’s dive into these Best Bets!
Best Bets Track Record
Friday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 77-72-1
Bostonian vs. The Book: 23-23-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 19-30
NBA Props: 27-13
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0
NBA Total: Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics
The bet: Bucks-Celtics Under 212.5
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast
On Friday, Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast easily cashed the Game 3 Mavericks-Suns Under 219 total points. It’s the same story, just different teams on Monday, as Perrault is looking at Under 212.5 for the Bucks-Celtics in Game 4 of that series.
Milwaukee is on an 8-0 Under spree. That’s every postseason contest, for those of you keeping score at home. Perrault believes that the bookmakers have yet to find the bottom when listing totals for games involving the Bucks. In fact, the linemakers seem stubborn when it comes to this trend, as Game 4’s total (212.5) is actually a notch higher than Game 3 (211.5). Game 3 went below that mark with a final score of 103-101.
Perrault believes a similar boxscore will appear on Monday, stating that a 105-101 type of final score seems likely (for either side).
Think the Bucks can make it nine straight Unders? You can find Under 212.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.
NBA Prop: G Dillon Brooks (Memphis Grizzlies)
The prop: Over 17.5 points (at Golden State)
The odds: -135
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via Monday NBA Props
The big news in this series involves the injury to Ja Morant. He suffered a knee injury during Game 3, and he later accused Jordan Poole of “breaking the code.” This was in response to Steve Kerr saying Dillon Brooks “broke the code” with his dirty foul against Gary Payton II during Game 2. I personally didn’t see anything wrong with what Poole did, but there is clearly some animosity building between these two squads.
Unfortunately, Morant is not expected to suit up in Monday’s Game 4. That’s a big blow for the Grizzlies, but it’s not exactly a death knell. The Grizzlies went 20-5 without Morant during the regular season, including 20-2 before losing three straight meaningless games to end the year. That’s not an outlier either: The Grizzlies Net Rating has been better with Morant off the floor all year.
If he does sit, the rest of the roster will be asked to pick up the scoring load. Brooks figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate to 30.1 percent with Morant off the floor this season, which trails only Jaren Jackson Jr.’s mark of 30.4 percent. Overall, Brooks averaged 24.1 points per 36 minutes in that scenario.
Additionally, Desmond Bane is also a bit banged up at the moment. He hasn’t looked like himself in each of the first three games of this series, posting a usage rate of 17.9 percent or less in all three contests. With that in mind, Brooks could be looking at a monster workload on Monday. This is one of my favorite NBA props of the day.
- Huge Selection of Sports
- 20+ States
- Top-Rated App
BetPrep Prop of the Day: F/C Bobby Portis (Milwaukee Bucks)
The bet: Over 7.5 rebounds (vs. Boston)
The odds: -138
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com
The BetPrep Prop of the Day comes from Milwaukee-Boston Game 4, looking for Bucks forward/center Bobby Portis to go Over 7.5 rebounds.
The rationale for BetPrep’s Best Bets selection:
- Portis averaged 9.1 rebounds per game in the regular season.
- Portis has faced the Celtics seven times this season. He’s averaging 8.15 rebounds in those contests.
- In six of eight playoff games, Portis has grabbed at least eight rebounds.
To elaborate on that last stat, Portis is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game in the postseason. In other words, this prop seems way too low.
You can find Portis Over 7.5 rebounds (-138) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- No. 1 U.S. sportsbook
- Live Betting
- Top-Rated App
