Monday Best Bets: One NBA Total, Two NBA Props

Let’s start the week off right with a trio of NBA picks serving as Monday’s Best Bets.

Even though our record has dipped over the last few weeks, our head is still above water at 62-58-1. That’s 51.67% for those of you too lazy to pull out the calculator app on your phone.

Our NBA props have served as a life preserver, with a 21-10 record on the season. We’ll lean on that once again as Matt LaMarca has a Celtics vs Nets player prop ready to roll for this highly anticipated Eastern Conference matchup.

Throw in the BetPrep Prop of the Day and one NBA total from The Bostonian vs. The Book, and you are looking at a full wagering menu from all of Monday’s NBA playoff action.

With that, let’s dive into Monday’s Best Bets!

Best Bets Track Record

Friday: 1-2
Year-To-Date: 62-58-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 16-20-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 17-22
NBA Props: 21-10
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Total: Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks

The bet: Mavs-Jazz Under 213
The odds: -110
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book Podcast cashed his portion of Friday’s Best Bets by correctly siding with the Suns against the Pelicans. He’ll look to keep that momentum while looking toward the Mavericks-Jazz Under 213 in Game 5 on Monday.

“[Dallas] plays slower with Luka on the court,” Perrault said. “At home, Dallas is 30-12-1 to the Under.”

To that point, Doncic returned to the lineup for Game 4 at Utah on Saturday. The 100-99 final score went well below the 214.5 total.

Dallas has played at the slowest pace in the NBA this season, checking in with an average of 98.4 possessions per game. Utah is the seventh-slowest at 100.2 possessions per game.

Props.com Senior Writer Jim Barnes reports that TwinSpires has seen the total Mavericks vs Jazz total rise from a 211.5 opener. Perhaps that creates a little more value to the Under?

If you are looking to bet the Mavs-Jazz Under 213, you can find it at Caesars Sportsbook.

NBA Prop: F Kevin Durant (Brooklyn Nets)

The bet: Over 28.5 points (vs. Boston)
The odds: -110
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Monday

I have never seen a defense frustrate Durant as much as the Celtics in this series. They absolutely suffocated him in the first two games, limiting him to just 31.7 percent shooting from the field and 28.6 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Durant is one of the most efficient scorers in league history, and he shot a blistering 51.4 percent during the postseason last year. What the Celtics have been able to do to him is borderline unfathomable. The defense appeared to be in Durant’s head in Game 3, when he attempted just 11 shots in another Nets defeat. His efficiency was up in that contest – he made six of those shots – but the lack of aggression in what amounted to a must-win contest was startling.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that his scoring prop has dipped to just 28.5 in Game 4. I am absolutely terrified of the Celtics’ defense, but this number seems too low given the stakes for the Nets. Durant played nearly 46 minutes in Game 3, and he should be looking at another massive workload on Monday. Durant averaged 29.9 points in 37.2 minutes during the regular season, so he obviously has significant scoring upside if he plays that much.

Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with one of the best game’s best scorers in a win-or-go-home situation.

NBA Prop: F Pascal Siakam (Toronto Raptors)

The bet: Over 5.5 assists (at Philadelphia)
The odds: -155
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

Raptors guard Fred VanVleet will not play in Game 5 at Philadelphia, and the folks at BetPrep are looking for Pascal Siakam to step up in his absence. Today’s BetPrep Prop of the Day looks for Siakam to take on a distribution role, going Over 5.5 assists.

The rationale for this play in Monday’s Best Bets:

• Siakam has recorded six-plus assists in six of his last eight when his team is an underdog and VanVleet doesn’t play.
• The Toronto forward has recorded six-plus assists in eight of his last 10 games against a team with a winning record and VanVleet doesn’t play.
• Siakam has recorded six-plus assists in 10 of his last 15 games overall.

Including the playoff games, Siakam is averaging 8.3 assists per contest against the 76ers this season. He has failed to go Over 5.5 assists in the last three games of this series, but the BetPrep crew likes his chances to move the ball around more with VanVleet sidelined.

You can find Siakam Over 5.5 assists (-155) at DraftKings Sportsbook.