The NBA’s playoff spots have been locked up, but the seeding is another matter. And with three days left in the regular season, motivation — or the lack of it — is a key component to handicapping the entire league, including Friday NBA props.
The Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks all need to win to improve their playoff position. But their opponents take the court with nothing to play for, and that motivational discrepancy likely will impact how the games play out.
With that caveat out of the way, we’ll look to rebound from Thursday’s 2-3 NBA props performance breaks down a trio of Friday NBA props involving a trio of stars playing for those aforementioned teams desperate for victories.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on April 8.
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Brooklyn Nets: G Kyrie Irving
The prop: 3.5 made 3-pointers (vs. Cleveland)
The odds: Over +115/Under -150
The Nets will have to participate in the NBA’s play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference, but there’s an easy path and a difficult one. If Brooklyn beats Cleveland on Friday, the Nets will lock up the No. 7 seed, host their play-in games and need to win only once to get into the main bracket. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are desperately trying to hold on to the No. 7 spot for the very same reason.
If the Nets lose, they could very well end up in the No. 9 spot and have to win two play-in games, on the road, just to make it into the main playoff bracket. All that is to say, the Nets will be going all out Friday — but against a motivated opponent.
That brings us to Brooklyn guard Kyrie Irving and this 3-pointer prop. Irving has been on a tear from beyond the arc, having made four or more 3-pointers in eight of the Nets’ past 11 games. Two of the three times he came up short were on the second night of back-to-backs.
Irving and the Nets have been idle since Wednesday, and he should go off against the Cavaliers, who rank 16th in the league in 3-point defense. Backing Irving to sink at least four 3-pointers at a plus-price is tremendous value in the Friday NBA props market.
Atlanta Hawks: G Trae Young
The prop: 27.5 points (at Miami)
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
The Hawks sit in the No. 9 spot in the Eastern Conference but still have designs on catching the Nets to get into the “win and in” play-in game. And Atlanta has caught a break with Miami having already clinched the No. 1 spot in the East.
So don’t expect the Heat to expend extra effort Friday. With the Hawks owning the clear motivational edge, look for them to lean on Trae Young to help secure a much-needed victory. And look for Young to respond with another big offensive night. The former Oklahoma standout has scored 30 or more points in four his past five games (including 36 against Brooklyn on Saturday).
Even the one recent game in which Young failed to beat this prop number, he finished with 26. Play the Over here.
Dallas Mavericks: G Luka Doncic
The prop: 28.5 points (vs. Portland)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
The Mavericks also need a win Friday to try to catch Golden State for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference and delay playing top-seeded Phoenix as long as possible.
Unlike Young and the Hawks, Doncic shouldn’t have to push himself to earn a victory over the hapless Trail Blazers. Portland has lost nine in a row and 19 of 21, with all but four of the defeats by double digits. Hence the reason the Mavs are a whopping 18-point favorite on Friday.
Dallas will need everything Luka Doncic has come playoff time. So look for the Mavs to build a big early lead, allowing their superstar to take a break for most (if not all) of the the second half.
Roll with Doncic to score fewer than 29 points for a second straight game after tallying 32 or more in his previous five.