NOTE: This is a guest article from our friends at Unabated Sports.
The Unabated NBA team delivers player prop projections daily, made by some of the sharpest players in the space – Justin Phan, Stephen Byron Keech and John Raudebaugh.
Betting NBA props is something of a different animal compared to betting props in other sports.
Because the prop markets are so reactive to news, and because player performance is very much tied to which teammates will be on the floor, it requires bettors to be very active and aware of context around what teams are doing when it comes to resting players, and other factors.
For a deeper look at NBA betting strategy with the Unabated NBA team, check out some of their thoughts on the process.
NBA DFS Pick’em Projections & Notes: Wednesday, January 15th
Here, we’re taking a look at few of those projections and how they stack up against available numbers at PrizePicks, which is widely available to players in the majority of jurisdictions.
We’re using the Unabated DFS Entry Builder to find an edge.
How to read this entry
- PowerPlay/FlexPlay: Whether or not this entry uses insurance – paying a reduced rate for entries that have one or more legs that miss.
- Projection: The average points, rebounds or assists the team is projecting for this player, based on how many minutes they’re projected to play.
- Edge: How much of an advantage you can expect to have over the pick’em sites, based on running 10,000 simulations of a player’s mean projections and generating a likely distribution of outcomes against the current posted number.
- Probability: How often we expect an outcome like higher points or lower assists, based on the projection simulated against the line. You can translate this to a projected price using an odds converter.
Best practices for DFS pick’em
Should you play a four-team entry over a five- or six-team? It depends. DFS pick’em products are always evolving. The best way to determine the optimal play is to use breakeven percentage as a way to guide your decisions.
Here’s a breakdown of how breakeven impacts your plays at Underdog and PrizePicks.
For standard plays at regular payouts, you’ll generally have the biggest edge when playing five- and six-man entries.
But as these products evolve, correlation is increasingly a factor in payouts. For example, a quarterback’s passing yards and star wide receiver’s yards would be correlated. That correlation may decrease your payout.
Always check the math to determine the breakeven percentage and payout of a play before you make any decisions.
Projection notes
- Milwaukee: Playing on a back-to-back. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are both probable, while Gary Trent Jr. remains out. We saw AJ Green step into a fairly big bench role last game, and he’ll have upside for that again here.
- Minnesota: Just G-League absences here, so nothing interesting as usual.
- Houston: Jabari Smith Jr. remains out and Tari Eason is once again doubtful. Nothing new here, Cam Whitmore and Jae’Sean Tate’s bench roles will remain secure for as long as Smith and Eason remain out, while Amen Thompson will continue starting.
- Toronto: Immanuel Quickley is out, which could lead to another Davion Mitchell start, or could lead to the Raptors turning to Ochai Agbaji to give them another switchable swing on defense against Tatum and Brown. The Raptors are without Ja’Kobe Walter, Jon Mogbo, Eugene Omoruyi, AJ Lawson and Ulrich Chomche.
Results
Through Jan. 12 games, Unabated NBA members who were betting using $100 units would be up $21,727 betting straight props against median sportsbook lines 30 minutes prior to tip-off on all points, rebounds or assists player prop projections that showed a 5% or more edge in the Unabated player prop simulator.
It’s a 5.74% return on investment across 3,072 bets.
Those include the dynamic conditional projections at Unabated NBA – which offer different scenarios for a team’s performance based on whether or not questionable players sit or start.
For example, on a night where Lebron James may be questionable to play for the Lakers at 4 p.m., the team will create two sets of projections: one where James plays, and one where he’s out, to show how his presence or absence will affect projections for the rest of the team.
These results include the appropriate sit/start scenarios if a player’s status is decided at least 30 minutes before the game starts. If James is confirmed to play by 9:30 p.m. for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off, results are for the “James plays” scenario. If he’s ruled out, the opposite scenario is recorded. If no decision is made before the 30-minute mark, Lakers projections wouldn’t be included in the results.
Dig into all the projections
Get more projection notes and up-to-the-minute breaking news alerts in the Unabated Discord, with dedicated channels just for Unabated NBA members.
Unabated NBA membership includes daily fantasy points projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. For those strictly interested in traditional DFS points, Unabated NBA DFS lets you access just those numbers.
Use Props.com’s coupon code “PLAYERPROPS” when signing up to receive a FREE 5-day Unabated Sports trial! Using our link/code will grant the redeemer $30 off Unabated products (not including NBA Projections plan), which can be used for a trial or discount.
